Bitcoin Continues Decline As Measured Move Target Approaches
Bitcoin lost ground off its failed test of the 20-day MA. It’s now pushing for a retest of the bullish piercing pattern from the start of February. In addition, it’s very close to reaching the measured move target marked by the red-hashed line in the chart.
Not a lot has changed since my last update. Range bound markets are not the most exciting, despite what look like big daily shifts. Last week, in the Russell 2000 ($IWM) we had a couple of days with upper ‘spikes’ that denotes excessive supply. Today’s gains sets up for another challenge of those spike highs tomorrow. Technicals are mixed with bullish On-Balance-Volume and Stochastics offset by bearish MACD and +DI/-DI; although with the ADX at 11, trend-driven technicals carry less weight. The index is still outperforming the Nasdaq, which may be the most bullish thing to say about the Small Caps index. There may be an aggressive short for a move above $265, but if the momentum into this price is strong, then it may be prudent to step aside or cover if already short.
The equal-weighted S&P bounced off channel support, but not before a MACD trigger ‘sell’. ADX is running below 20, so the trend isn’t running at the same pace as at the start of the year.
The equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 had gone from a range bound support break to a bullish ‘wedge’. Technicals are net bearish but there is pending ‘buy’ trigger in the MACD.
Not a whole lot on offer for tomorrow. Would like to see range support or resistance challenged for lead indices, but any such move would take a few days to develop. —
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