Bitcoin has entered its historically strongest month — November — which has delivered an average gain of 42.51% since 2013. If history repeats itself, that could push Bitcoin’s price beyond $160,000 before month’s end.
Still, analysts caution that broader macroeconomic forces will play a crucial role.
“I do think seasonal charts matter a lot, but it has to be combined with a lot of other factors,” said Markus Thielen, crypto analyst at 10x Research.
Market watchers are eyeing potential tailwinds from expected U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and improving trade relations between the U.S. and China — both of which could boost Bitcoin’s momentum. However, ongoing concerns over a possible U.S. government shutdown and persistent tariff issues continue to cloud the outlook.
Here are some key developments to monitor in the coming weeks:
U.S.–China trade thaw
A meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday marked a positive step toward easing trade tensions between the two nations.
Trump described the talks, held in South Korea, as “amazing.” According to reports, the discussions led to an agreement for the U.S. to reduce certain tariffs on China in exchange for Beijing’s pledge to curb fentanyl exports, resume purchases of U.S. soybeans, and lift restrictions on rare earth exports for one year.
Trump told reporters he expects a trade deal with China “pretty soon.” His earlier threats of new tariffs, however, were widely blamed for the recent crypto market crash that wiped out $19 billion in liquidations within just 24 hours on Oct. 11 — a blow the market has yet to fully recover from.
Still, not everyone is convinced the tensions are truly easing. Dennis Wilder, a professor at Georgetown University and senior fellow at its China Initiative, told CBC News the meeting represented more of a “pause” in the trade war rather than a resolution.
U.S. Fed to cut rates, end quantitative tightening
Just days ago, Federal Reserve officials approved another quarter-point interest rate cut, bringing the key lending rate to its lowest level in three years.
The next Fed meeting is scheduled for Dec. 10, 2025, and according to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 63% chance of another rate reduction. Still, Fed Chair Jerome Powell tempered expectations, saying the move was “not a foregone conclusion.”
Historically, lower rates have been bullish for Bitcoin, as cheaper borrowing tends to push investors toward higher-risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Adding to the optimism, the Fed announced plans to end its quantitative tightening (QT) program on Dec. 1. QT — the process of shrinking the central bank’s balance sheet — is designed to cool an overheating economy and rein in inflation. Its suspension could inject additional liquidity into the market, providing further support for risk assets such as Bitcoin.
The opposite of quantitative tightening — quantitative easing (QE) — occurs when central banks inject liquidity into the economy by increasing the money supply. This policy is generally viewed as positive for cryptocurrencies, as some of that excess capital tends to flow into alternative assets like Bitcoin.
U.S. government shutdown drags on
The U.S. government shutdown is nearing its fifth week, putting it on track to become the longest in American history as Republicans and Democrats remain locked in a stalemate over federal spending.
On Thursday, President Trump urged Republicans to eliminate the Senate filibuster — a procedural rule that allows a minority of senators to block legislative action — blaming it for the ongoing shutdown.
“THE CHOICE IS CLEAR – INITIATE THE ‘NUCLEAR OPTION,’ GET RID OF THE FILIBUSTER AND MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Ending the shutdown is seen as a key prerequisite for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to move forward with approvals for several pending crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs). It would also allow progress on the CLARITY Act, a proposed bill aimed at improving the regulatory framework for digital assets and market structure in the U.S.
