Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin surged 1.5% to surpass $115,000, as on-chain data points to strengthening market momentum.
- To sustain its recovery, BTC needs to stay above $115,000, facing resistance in the $116,000–$121,000 range.
Bitcoin gained ground on Friday, climbing 1.5% over the past 24 hours to trade above $115,000. According to Glassnode, several technical and on-chain indicators indicate that the BTC market is “advancing on firmer footing” toward higher levels.
Derivatives Leading the Recovery
Weak spot demand and softening ETF inflows have limited Bitcoin’s ability to sustain a recovery.
“Focus now shifts to derivatives markets, which often drive price action when spot flows weaken,” Glassnode noted in its latest Week Onchain report.
The accompanying chart shows Bitcoin’s volume delta bias—tracking the imbalance between buying and selling pressure—rebounded during the rise from $108,000, pointing to seller exhaustion across exchanges such as Binance and Bybit. This indicates that futures traders “helped absorb recent sell pressure,” the market intelligence firm added.
“Going forward, the evolution of derivatives positioning will be critical to navigating the market in this low spot-liquidity environment.”
Meanwhile, options open interest (OI) hit a record $54.6 billion, up 26% from $43 billion on September 1, highlighting growing investor activity in the derivatives market—a factor that could support BTC’s price.
Notably, the previous OI peak in mid-August coincided with Bitcoin climbing to fresh all-time highs above $124,500.
Additional options OI data shows a clear bias toward calls over puts, “highlighting a market that leans bullish while still managing downside risk,” Glassnode said, adding:
“Both futures basis and options positioning reflect a more balanced structure than in past overheated phases, pointing to a market advancing on firmer footing.”
As previously reported, Friday’s $4.3 billion Bitcoin options expiry favors bullish positions, potentially paving the way for a BTC rally to $120,000—provided the price remains above $113,000.
Key Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows Bitcoin trading at $115,400 after encountering resistance near $116,000. For a sustained recovery, BTC/USD needs to stay above $115,000.
A significant supply zone spans $116,000 to $121,000, which Bitcoin must surpass to continue its uptrend toward all-time highs.
On the other hand, bears are likely to defend the $116,000 level, aiming to push Bitcoin lower. Key support zones include $114,500, near the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), down to $112,200, aligned with the 100-day SMA.
Another critical area lies between the recent low of $107,200, hit on September 1, and the $110,000 psychological level.
“Bitcoin is now pushing toward the previous monthly open,” noted pseudonymous trader KillaXBT on X, referring to the August open around $115,700.
“This is a crucial pivot point in terms of trend direction. We could see some deviation above, as always.”
According to CoinGlass data, the BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap highlights liquidity clusters between $116,400 and $117,000.
A break above this zone could trigger a liquidation squeeze, forcing short sellers to cover and potentially pushing Bitcoin toward $120,000.
On the downside, heavy bid orders are sitting around $114,700, with the next major cluster sitting between $113,500 down to $112,000.
