Market analysts say Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a relief rally after rebounding about 17% from multi-year lows below $60,000, but a move above the $78,000 level will be crucial to signal a reversal of the broader downtrend.
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin has climbed 17% from lows below $60,000, with on-chain data indicating that market demand is starting to return.
- However, analysts say BTC must break the $78,000 resistance level to confirm the end of the current downtrend.
Bitcoin buyers appear to be returning to the market as demand for BTC derivatives picks up, according to data from CryptoQuant.
The platform’s net taker volume metric — which tracks the imbalance between aggressive buyers and sellers in derivatives markets — has remained positive since the conflict between the US and Iran began, suggesting stronger buying pressure.
Nic Puckrin, CEO of Coinbureau, noted in a post on X on Wednesday that the 30-day moving average of net taker volume has stayed in positive territory since the conflict started.
The shift toward buying activity coincided with Bitcoin’s recovery to around $74,000, signaling that demand has returned across derivatives markets.
“This shows taker buy volume has outpaced sell volume,” Puckrin said, adding that the data points to renewed bullish momentum among traders.
“Bitcoin buyers are in control.”
The Bull Score Index, which tracks Bitcoin’s overall market health using a mix of fundamental and technical indicators, also points to improving conditions.
According to data from CryptoQuant, the metric has climbed to 30, up from 10 on March 6, marking its highest level since late October 2025.
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said the index suggests the market phase has shifted from “extra bearish” to “bearish.” He added:
“We are still in a bear market, but in a relief rally.”
Meanwhile, demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remains strong, with the investment products recording three consecutive days of inflows totaling $529.2 million.
Bitcoin must break $78,000 to end downtrend
Data from TradingView shows that Bitcoin has spent more than four weeks consolidating between $62,000 and $72,000, with several failed attempts to maintain momentum above the $70,000 level.
Looking at the broader market structure, the price is currently trapped between two key on-chain levels. The realized price — the average acquisition cost of all circulating Bitcoin — sits at $54,400, while the true market mean, which reflects the cost basis of actively transacted coins, is around $78,000, according to the latest Week On-chain report from Glassnode. The firm added:
“In the absence of broader macro headwinds, this range could plausibly support a bear market relief rally capped by the true market mean.”
The chart above indicates that the price of Bitcoin remained between these two cost-basis levels for most of 2023, with several relief rallies repeatedly rejected at the true market mean. The market eventually broke out in October 2023, largely driven by the announcement of approvals for US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Meanwhile, trader and analyst Titan of Crypto said that a break above the $78,000–$80,000 range could signal the start of a long-term trend reversal.
Yesterday, Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin’s upside may be limited near the $78,000 level, as derivatives traders are assigning low odds to a breakout above this resistance in the near term.
Meanwhile, analysts at Glassnode said repeated failures to sustain price levels above $70,000 are beginning to skew the mid-term return outlook toward the downside. The firm identified the realized price around $54,000 as the main support level to watch.
Other key technical levels include the 200-week exponential moving average near $68,300, the $60,000–$65,500 demand zone, and the 200-week simple moving average at $58,800, which has historically acted as the final support during major market downturns.
