Despite higher demand for bullish bets, macroeconomic uncertainty keeps downside risks on the table.
A total of $22.6 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) options are scheduled to expire on Friday, creating a decisive moment after the sharp rejection at $117,000. Currently, bullish strategies remain better positioned heading into the expiry as long as the $112,000 level holds.
Deribit continues to dominate the market, with $17.4 billion in open interest for Friday’s Bitcoin options, while OKX and CME trail behind with $1.9 billion each. Call (buy) options generally outnumber put (sell) contracts, reflecting cryptocurrency traders’ consistent optimism.
The September expiry follows the usual trend, with put open interest sitting 20% below the $12.6 billion in call positions. The final outcome depends on Bitcoin’s price at 8:00 am UTC on Friday, and the initial advantage for call holders will hinge on whether prices sustain above $112,000.
Traders’ positioning at Deribit exchange shows that neutral-to-bearish bets targeted the $95,000 to $110,000 range, which is becoming increasingly unlikely. A significant portion of call contracts were placed at highly optimistic levels, with $6.6 billion in open interest waiting at $120,000 and above, leaving around $3.3 billion realistically in play.
Meanwhile, 81% of put options at Deribit are set at $110,000 or lower, leaving only $1.4 billion active. This setup strongly favors neutral-to-bullish outcomes, though the analysis excludes more complex strategies, such as selling puts to capture upside exposure. To confirm whether professionals are truly leaning bullish, traders are watching the options skew metric.
The Bitcoin options delta skew shows moderate fear at 13%, with put options trading at a premium over equivalent call contracts. Under neutral conditions, this gauge should remain between -6% and 6%, signaling that whales and market makers are uneasy about downside risk at the current $113,500 level.
Related: Bitcoin to ‘move up smartly again’ toward end of 2025-Saylor
Below are three probable scenarios at Deribit based on current price trends:
It may be premature to write off bearish options strategies entirely. Traders’ sentiment could shift depending on key macroeconomic releases due Thursday, including US gross domestic product (GDP) data, weekly jobless claims, and upcoming Treasury auctions.
An increasingly fragile economic backdrop supports additional interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, typically a bullish driver for risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies. Still, persistent concerns over labor market weakness fuel risk aversion, which weighs negatively on Bitcoin’s price.
For now, the September monthly Bitcoin options expiry is tilted in favor of bulls, though a decisive drop below $112,000 cannot be ruled out.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
