Bitcoin’s current price surge might only last a few more months if it continues to mirror the historical pattern seen in 2020, a crypto analyst has cautioned.
“We have a very small sliver of time and price expansion left,” said crypto analyst Rekt Capital in a video released Thursday, referencing the trajectory of Bitcoin’s rally five years ago.
Bitcoin bull market could taper off after October
Rekt explained that if Bitcoin follows the same cycle as in 2020, the market is likely to peak in October—roughly 550 days after the April 2024 halving.
“That potentially gives us just two to three months left in this bull market,” he said.
Rekt noted that many market participants are disregarding the traditional halving cycle, instead predicting a possible “cycle extension” that could stretch into 2026.
“Many people are quick to discard time-tested principles, but it’s crucial to rely on these kinds of metrics—they provide consistency, unlike chasing every new narrative,” he said.
According to Rekt, some are sidelining the halving cycle in favor of emerging narratives, such as Bitcoin’s correlation with the global M2 money supply.
Just this past Wednesday, crypto analyst Crypto Auris stated, “As the global money supply grows, Bitcoin’s next target is around ~$170K, following the liquidity trend.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $109,155—just 2.5% below its all-time high of $111,970, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Rekt Capital says chasing new Bitcoin metrics is driven by emotion
Rekt Capital suggested that turning to new Bitcoin metrics is often a knee-jerk reaction. “It’s an emotional thing, and you don’t want emotions clouding your judgment,” he said.
Still, some crypto analysts argue that the traditional Bitcoin halving cycle has become less relevant, pointing to the growing role of institutional investors—something previous cycles lacked.
On Thursday, Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, stated, “Thanks to increased investor flows, we believe BTC has moved beyond the old dynamic where prices dropped 18 months after a halving.”
Back in May, Standard Chartered forecasted that Bitcoin could hit $200,000 by year’s end—a prediction echoed by wealth management firm Bernstein. Both estimates fall short of BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes’ more aggressive $250,000 target.
