After a turbulent few days, Bitcoin (BTC) has resumed its downtrend, currently retracing toward $111,000. This marks a 12% decline from its recent peak of $126,000, which raises concerns among market experts who suggest that the bull run may be closer to its end than many investors believe.
On October 14, market analyst CryptoBirb, took to social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to assert that the bullish cycle is nearing its conclusion, stating that it may end within the next nine days.
He referenced the Cycle Peak Countdown indicator, which suggests that Bitcoin is 99.3% through its current cycle, having lasted 1,058 days. According to CryptoBirb, this final stage is characterized by a “textbook shakeout of weak hands,” a common pattern observed before market peaks.
CryptoBirb emphasized that October 24 serves as a critical target date, just nine days away, and labeled the recent crash as “right on schedule.” He further explained that the market is deep within the peak zone, with 543 days elapsing since the last Bitcoin Halving, exceeding the historical peak window of 518 to 580 days.
The sentiment in the market also appears to have shifted dramatically, with the Fear & Greed Index plummeting from 71 to 38, indicating a reset from fear to euphoria. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also dropped from 67 to 47, suggesting that this emotional washout may create an ideal launchpad for a final euphoric surge.
However, technical indicators show mixed signals: while the Average True Range (ATR) has expanded to 4,040, indicating higher volatility, the RSI’s position at 47 suggests a reset momentum.
Institutional investors have also begun to shift their strategies, as evidenced by recent Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) flows, which reversed from $627 million in inflows to $4.5 million in outflows.
Ethereum ETF outflows reached $174.9 million, indicating that smart money is taking profits before retail investors potentially fear of missing out (FOMO) in. CryptoBirb asserts that this behavior aligns with a classic distribution-to-accumulation transition.
On-chain metrics reflect a cooling market, with the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) dropping to 0.522 from 0.556, and the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) declining to 2.15 from 2.45. These profit-taking actions may be creating the necessary space for a final euphoric push.
When examining October’s performance, Bitcoin is down 2.09% month-to-date, contrasting sharply with its historical average of a 19.78% increase. This underperformance could actually be a bullish sign, suggesting that a significant move may still be on the horizon in the final weeks of the month.
In summary, the current cycle appears to be 99.3% complete. It has already spent 25 days in the peak zone and experienced a reset in sentiment and institutional distribution, as well as weak performance in October. However, if the analyst’s thesis proves right, this blending could turn into a perfect storm for a final surge before entering a new crypto winter.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
