Bitcoin analysts are warning that the bull market may peak within 50 days, but others argue that liquidity and institutions could extend the rally.
A crypto analyst has predicted that the current Bitcoin bull market could end in the next 50 days. The forecast places the market peak between late October and mid-November.
The prediction comes from a study of past bull cycles. According to the analyst, Bitcoin is 95% of the way through its rally. The estimate uses cycle timing based on days since the November 2022 low and the April 2024 halving.
Both metrics suggest Bitcoin is entering what some traders call the “hot zone” for a cycle top.
Historically, Bitcoin bull markets have peaked between 1,060 and 1,100 days after a cycle low. The current market sits at around 1,017 days since its last bottom, and has raised worries about a correction before the end of the year.
Bitcoin has a history of dramatic price swings around cycle peaks. Each post-halving bull market has ended with gains of 700%, which are then followed by a massive decline.
The 2021 rally is one example.
Bitcoin corrected by 24% in September before surging to a new all-time high in November. Prices then collapsed by more than 70% in the first half of 2022.
Based on these patterns, analysts suggest next-year bear market is almost guaranteed if Bitcoin tops out this year. They estimate a possible 70% to 80% drawdown within 370 to 410 days after the peak.
Benjamin Cowen, founder of ITC Crypto, noted that September is often a bottoming month before a final rally into the fourth quarter. He explained that these seasonal lows set the stage for cycle tops shortly afterwards.
While some analysts are warning of a possible peak, others argue that this cycle does not follow the usual playbook. They believe that general liquidity and institutional demand have changed how the market behaves.
Data shows that Bitcoin now moves closely with liquidity flows. In fact, the correlation rate stands at 83 per cent over the past 12 months. This is stronger than with most other assets.
Institutional adoption is also another layer. Spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries have started buying digital assets massively. These investors typically spend larger amounts of capital but move more slowly, which creates steadier growth.
Another sign that the Bitcoin bull market may not be done yet comes from altcoin performance. According to data from the previous cycle, Ethereum and other major tokens hit all-time highs relatively early.
This cycle has been different.
Despite being more than 1,000 days into the cycle, Ethereum and the general altcoin index have yet to break their 2021 highs. Analysts see this as a sign that the altcoin rally is delayed, not over.
When altcoins do catch up, they could fuel the next phase of the cycle. This would extend the general market bull run and create opportunities for traders beyond Bitcoin.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades near $112,200 after bouncing from a dip below $109,500. The asset has been consolidating between $107,500 and $112,500 in recent weeks.
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