Murphy explained that as market makers unwind their hedge positions during the expiration process, the temporary support and resistance levels created by the options market may weaken, as per a Bitcoin Sistemi
report. This could result in sharp and rapid price movements until traders reposition themselves and a new funding structure forms.
The analysis suggested that if Bitcoin revisits its previous low in the $80,000 to $82,000 range, it could create a speculative opportunity for a short-term rebound, as per the Bitcoin Sistemi report. Murphy emphasized that strong volatility during periods of low liquidity does not always signal the start of a new market crash.
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At the same time, early signs of a bullish divergence have started to appear on shorter timeframes. This signal emerges when the pace of Bitcoin’s price decline is stronger than the rate of capital outflows, pointing to the possibility of a correction or temporary recovery within a broader downtrend.
The analysis used the Price and Capital Inflow Gradient indicator, which measures the relationship between price momentum and actual capital flows. In previous market cycles, sharp price declines paired with slowing capital outflows have often been followed by rebound rallies.
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The report noted that after four bullish divergence signals observed during 2021-2022 and 2024-2025, Bitcoin experienced recoveries of varying sizes and, in some cases, trend reversals. However, with overall market sentiment still in a phase of recovery from a bear market, the analysis suggested that any upside move this time is more likely to be limited and short term.
What is happening in the Bitcoin market on December 26?
About $23.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options are set to expire, making it the largest options expiry on record.
Why is this options expiry important for Bitcoin’s price?
Large expiries can weaken temporary support and resistance levels, leading to increased price volatility.
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