In a comprehensive study, Glassnode and Avenir Group have delved into the evolving liquidity profile of Bitcoin (BTC), highlighting key influences such as structural capital flows, institutional demand, and its integration into the macro-financial landscape. This pivotal report offers a detailed examination of how Bitcoin’s liquidity is being reshaped as it becomes more entwined with global financial markets, according to Glassnode.
The report introduces a novel framework that combines on-chain activity, market microstructure, and macroeconomic linkages into a cohesive analytical perspective. This integrated approach allows for a nuanced understanding of how capital movements among these domains impact the broader market dynamics.
Despite Bitcoin’s significant market capitalization, its price performance since the 2022 cycle low closely mirrors previous cycles, suggesting that capital inflows are growing in tandem with the asset’s expansion. Notably, the Realized Cap has increased by over $544 billion since November 2022, elevating Bitcoin’s network liquidity to a record $944 billion, reflecting its deepening role in the global financial system.
The report sheds light on the off-chain components of Bitcoin’s market, including the execution mechanics across spot and derivative venues. A significant finding is that most inflows into U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs remain unhedged, implying that institutional investors are primarily using these vehicles for long-only exposure rather than for arbitrage or basis trading. This could lead to a more pronounced impact on price formation.
In 2025, Bitcoin’s behavior increasingly aligns with macroeconomic variables, showing a positive beta to global liquidity and a positive correlation with risk assets like equities. Conversely, it exhibits a negative correlation with the U.S. dollar and credit stress indicators, marking a shift from its previous idiosyncratic behavior to alignment with traditional macro assets.
The Avenir x Glassnode report provides an in-depth institutional assessment of Bitcoin’s liquidity profile, offering insights into on-chain capital flows, exchange-level data, and macroeconomic linkages. This report is essential for understanding Bitcoin’s maturation as a macro asset, with detailed analysis and findings available in the full report.
