Bitcoin (BTC) continues to navigate a mild bearish phase, trading between $97,000 and $111,900, according to Glassnode. The cryptocurrency faces significant resistance above $106,000, which is compounded by ETF outflows and low leverage, signaling a cautious market environment.
The current trading range is marked by seller exhaustion near the $100,000 level, providing short-term support. However, the lack of strong follow-through demand is evident, as the market remains capped by a dense supply cluster between $106,000 and $118,000. This resistance zone is where many investors are choosing to exit near breakeven, limiting upward momentum.
Recent on-chain data shows Bitcoin briefly dipping below $100,000, continuing a downtrend that began in early October. The market is experiencing a lack of conviction and liquidity, with prices trending lower. Seller exhaustion is evident, as a significant portion of realized value comes from coins sold at a loss, highlighting the market’s top-heavy nature.
The Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap indicates a buildup of realized supply around the sub-$100,000 zone, suggesting renewed accumulation. However, the persistent resistance above $106,000 continues to challenge the potential for sustained recovery.
Off-chain indicators also reflect a cautious market stance. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have shifted to modest outflows, indicating a pause in institutional accumulation. Futures markets show muted funding rates and low open interest, pointing to subdued speculative activity. Options traders are maintaining a defensive stance, with put protection concentrated around $100,000.
The derivatives market exhibits a lack of speculative appetite, with traders de-risking and maintaining low conviction across both Bitcoin and altcoins. This cautious sentiment is further supported by the high demand for put options, highlighting traders’ preference for downside protection.
Overall, Bitcoin’s market structure remains bearish, with strong resistance between $106,000 and $118,000 and key support near $97,500 to $100,000. The market is stabilizing but not yet showing signs of a bullish reversal. Until renewed inflows or a clear macro catalyst emerge, Bitcoin is likely to continue oscillating within this defined range, with $100,000 serving as a psychological line of defense.
