Bitcoin macro bottom remains structurally unconfirmed, analyst warns investors Critical moving average crossover still missing from chart Three past cycles confirm pattern before sustainable expansion
Bitcoin’s recent price stability has fueled speculation that the worst of the downturn may be over. However, according to crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO, a crucial technical signal that confirmed every prior macro bottom has not yet appeared. His latest assessment suggests that the market may still be missing a decisive structural trigger.
In a post shared on X by EGRAG CRYPTO, historical data across three major cycles shows a consistent pattern. Each macro bottom formed only after the light blue moving average crossed below the red moving average. Moreover, he emphasized that sustainable expansion never occurred without that crossover. That observation, he explained, reflects structural behavior rather than personal opinion.
Three Cycles, One Repeating Pattern
During the 2014 to 2015 bear market, Bitcoin declined sharply before the bearish cross materialized. Subsequently, price carved out a bottoming structure and entered a prolonged recovery. Similarly, the 2018 downturn followed the same framework. The crossover appeared near the final stage of weakness, and the price later transitioned into a strong bullish cycle.
The 2022 correction reinforced that pattern, as the light blue line once again crossed beneath the red line around the bottoming zone. Consequently, Bitcoin stabilized and advanced into the next recovery phase. This repeated alignment across cycles highlights the consistency of the indicator.
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At present, that bearish cross has not occurred; he stated that the bottom cannot be confirmed within this framework. Additionally, he outlined two possible paths forward. Either the crossover still happens and aligns with historical behavior, or the market produces a rare structural deviation.
Missing Crossover Keeps Bottom Unconfirmed
This model focuses on macro confirmation rather than short-term rebounds. Significantly, it avoids reacting to temporary rallies that lack broader support. Besides, it prioritizes trend validation through measurable indicators. Structure continues to guide long-term analysis under this framework.
Although Bitcoin remains well above previous cycle lows, confirmation depends on the moving average relationship. Consequently, traders monitoring macro cycles may remain cautious until that signal appears.
Meanwhile, the absence of the crossover keeps the debate open. Market conditions also differ from earlier cycles due to increased institutional participation and evolving regulatory landscapes. Nevertheless, historical patterns continue to influence expectations.
Bitcoin’s macro outlook remains under review as the critical bearish crossover has yet to materialize. Past cycles required a signal before sustained recoveries began. Without it, the bottom remains technically unconfirmed within this historical model.
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