Key points:
- Bitcoin records its weakest October since 2018 as traders turn cautious on market outlook.
- ETF outflows have resumed, while derivatives traders move to hedge risk despite supportive macro conditions.
- Meanwhile, Bollinger Bands data indicates that BTC price volatility may be gearing up for a major resurgence.
Bitcoin hovered near $110,000 on Saturday as traders maintained a bearish stance following a disappointing end to “Uptober.”
Bitcoin demand “weakness” caps off Uptober
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC recovering some of its losses from Friday’s Wall Street session.
The rebound followed a week marked by persistent sell pressure across both U.S. exchanges and spot Bitcoin ETFs.
According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the latest ETF outflows reflect “rising sell pressure from TradFi investors and renewed weakness in institutional demand.”
Figures from UK-based Farside Investors showed $191 million in outflows on Friday, adding to the $488 million withdrawn the previous day.
Glassnode added that markets appeared to shrug off a potential macro tailwind — the U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent interest-rate cut.
“The Fed delivered the expected rate cut, but its hawkish tone for December has dampened optimism,” the firm told its X followers.
“The initial rally faded as traders moved back into cautious mode, a shift clearly reflected in BTC’s options market.”
Traders also remained cautious, with crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows describing the current Bitcoin setup as a case of “time-based capitulation.”
“BTC time-based capitulation is unfolding now — but for this to hold, Bitcoin needs to consolidate above $100,000,” he cautioned on Friday.
“A weekly close below this level will confirm the downtrend.”
Meanwhile, trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that a decisive move would only occur once Bitcoin broke out of its current trading range, either above or below key resistance and support levels. The two critical price zones to watch, he said, are $107,000 and $116,000.
Bollinger Bands point to rising BTC volatility ahead
October closed with BTC/USD posting a 3.7% loss, marking its worst monthly performance since 2018.
As Cointelegraph noted, however, November has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest month — data from CoinGlass shows an average 42.5% gain since 2013.
Commentator Matthew Hyland noted that the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator continues to signal that record volatility could be imminent.
“Monthly Bollinger Bands have reached the most extreme levels in Bitcoin’s history,” he wrote on X.
The narrowing of the Bollinger Bands has long been on traders’ radar.
Last month, the indicator’s creator, John Bollinger, remarked that it was soon going to be “time to pay attention” to rising volatility across Bitcoin and major altcoins.
