Several crypto analysts believe Bitcoin may still face one final sell-off that could push prices down to around $50,000 before a meaningful recovery begins.
Ivan Liljeqvist, a Bitcoin trader and author, said in a post on X that the market has yet to experience “the big flush.”
“I don’t think we’ve had it yet—I don’t think $60,000 was the bottom,” he said, adding that the broader trend remains downward.
Liljeqvist noted that recent price rebounds have been relatively minor compared to the overall decline, and that the strong momentum seen in previous bull cycles is currently lacking.
Meanwhile, analyst Merlijn Enkelaar suggested Bitcoin could be entering a second bearish phase following accumulation. He warned that a “manipulation phase” might drive prices down to $50,000 before transitioning into a later distribution phase.
Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that the $50,000 level is increasingly viewed as a key accumulation zone ahead of any sustained recovery, potentially marking a healthy market reset amid macroeconomic pressure and weak capital rotation.
“This could potentially set up for stronger bullish momentum once the flush concludes, but the institutionalization of crypto markets places consistent buying pressure at current levels.”
Bitcoin still appears “super bearish” on higher time frames, according to analyst “symbiote,” who said on Monday that he is انتظار a final sharp sell-off toward targets of $59,000 or even $50,000. “Either way, the last dump is coming,” he added.
Meanwhile, analyst “Jelle” pointed to a bearish flag pattern that remained in play, signaling a potential continuation of the downtrend and further price declines.
This cautious outlook persists among prominent analysts despite Bitcoin’s recent rally to just below $75,000, fueled by renewed optimism around a possible US–Iran deal to ease weeks of geopolitical tension that have weighed on global markets.
Bitcoin may avoid a full 60% drawdown
Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, noted that Bitcoin is already down about 40% from its most recent all-time high. However, he highlighted that earlier cycles—largely driven by retail speculation—experienced steeper corrections, including an 82% drop after the 2017 peak and a 77% decline following the 2021 high.
Ruck suggested that this cycle may not see the same magnitude of losses, stating that “there is a chance it might not reach an idealized 60% drawdown” due to a more macro-driven market structure and increased institutional participation.
Earlier this month, Fidelity Digital Assets also observed that downside volatility in 2026 has been less severe compared to previous market cycles.
