Bitcoin’s rebound from the $107,200 low has reignited debate over whether the market has already carved out its local bottom and is primed for a fresh rally. Independent analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) says the odds are “90%+” that the bottom is in, pointing to both price structure and his recurring “FOMC reversal confluence” model as supporting evidence.
Analyst Sees 90%+ Probability the Bottom Is Set
Astronomer, who had correctly called for a short-term pullback from $123,000 to the $110,000–$111,000 range, disclosed that he switched bullish once his target was reached in late August. “As if my confidence in a $110k bottom at the end of August wasn’t strong enough … another major confluence is now aligning,” he wrote. He argues that the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting cycle has consistently marked key turning points in Bitcoin’s price action.
According to his data, Bitcoin tends to reverse trend either on the date of an FOMC meeting or within six bars beforehand—historically accurate in over 90% of cases. The exceptions, he notes, occurred when the larger quarterly trend overrode shorter-term signals. In practice, Astronomer suggests, markets often front-run the event, as major players position ahead of retail reaction to the Fed’s decision.
With the next FOMC meeting set for September 18, he believes the recent slide from $123,000 to $110,000 has already run its course. “With FOMC on the horizon … the low is likely already locked in, and the trend has flipped upward,” Astronomer concluded.
The analyst contrasted his approach with the wider crypto commentary landscape, where many influencers still warn of deeper downside and a so-called “red September.” He dismissed such claims as “utter nonsense” driven by shallow seasonality arguments. “Each time this works, the bottom forms before the actual FOMC meeting to front-run expectations … insiders already set the post-FOMC price path regardless of the outcome,” he explained, adding that generic caution ahead of central bank events often overlooks the structural shifts in play.
Since entering long at $110,000, Bitcoin has climbed above $115,000, leading Astronomer to declare the bearish September thesis invalid. “September will close green. Septembears are already 6% off. With September opening at 108,299 and price now at 115,000, this month sits in Bitcoin’s upper historical quartile for strength,” he said.
He also pointed to the last two years to argue that September’s reputation as a weak month for Bitcoin is outdated. “A month doesn’t have to be red. ‘Seasonality’ is just a cookie-cutter substitute for proper cycle analysis. Look at the past two years—September has been green and brutal for the bears,” he wrote.
For Astronomer, the conclusion is straightforward: “When multiple confluences align, it usually means you’ve solved the Rubik’s cube correctly, and can trust the outcome.” Still, he paired conviction with caution, emphasizing risk management: “Of course, I could always be wrong. Even though it’s been a long time since we lost a trade, never go all in. Size your risk reasonably and rest easy.”
With Bitcoin holding firm above $115,000 and the next FOMC decision just days away, the market’s judgment on whether a lasting bottom is in place may come sooner than expected.
