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On Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below the significant $90,000 mark once again, raising concerns about the possibility of entering a new bear market and casting doubt on the cryptocurrency’s prospects. Market analyst Raun Neuner published a new analysis of the situation in a post on X (formerly Twitter).
Neuner highlighted that while stocks are performing robustly and commodities are experiencing what he calls a “supercycle,” the crypto market still struggles to gain traction. This situation raises the critical question: What is the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin?
Historically, Bitcoin’s bull markets tend to peak approximately 532 days after each Halving event. Applying this pattern to the current cycle suggests that Bitcoin could have reached its peak around early October, where it briefly touched $125,000.
Historical trends show that following these peaks, Bitcoin typically endures a substantial decline of 70 to 80%. If this framework holds for the current cycle, Neuner estimates a potential downturn to around $37,000 in the event of a full bear market.
Zooming out to consider broader traditional market dynamics provides further context. After a year marked by strong performances in both stocks and commodities, market corrections are to be expected.
During risk-off periods in equity markets, Bitcoin has historically amplified these downward moves, contributing to building pressure toward the lower end of the spectrum. The analyst indicates that a key reference point for Bitcoin might be around the $57,000 mark, where the 200-week moving average (MA) resides.
The immediate factors contributing to Bitcoin’s recent drop below the $90,000 threshold are linked to heightened volatility in global bond and equity markets, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions.
Walter Bloomberg, an expert in market analysis, pointed out that the new downtrend has been spurred by various macroeconomic factors, including renewed threats from President Trump regarding tariffs on Greenland and Japan’s fiscal strategies that have added to market instability.
Consequently, investors have turned to safe-haven assets like gold, which recently reached a record price exceeding $4,700. In response, Bloomberg warns that macro risks may be underappreciated.
Demand for downside protection in Bitcoin’s options market is also rising, indicating that investors are aware of the potential for further declines.
The next significant levels for the Bitcoin price in the near term, according to Bloomberg, lie between $84,000 and $85,000, which are expected to act as support for BTC. If the cryptocurrency fails to hold these levels, fears of a deep bear market may become more pronounced.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
