Key points:
- Short-term Bitcoin holders are creating key support levels near the current BTC price — but a noticeable gap remains between $110,000 and $115,000.
- According to Glassnode, this gap could be the next downside target if the price pulls back.
- If a breakout occurs, profit-taking by short-term holders may limit Bitcoin’s upside around the $140,000 mark.
Bitcoin could soon test a “key” support level, potentially pushing its price down to $110,000, according to new research.
In its latest “The Week Onchain” newsletter, crypto analytics firm Glassnode identified a fresh price magnet influencing BTC’s next move.
Glassnode: Bitcoin Cost Basis Gap Exerts “Magnetic Pull” on Price
Short-term holders (STHs) could trigger the next 7% drop in Bitcoin’s price, potentially pulling the market back to $110,000.
STHs—those holding BTC for up to 155 days—often create key support zones during bull markets, as their average entry price, known as the cost basis or realized price, becomes a critical reference point.
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s rapid move from $110,000 to $115,000 earlier this month left little time for buyers to enter the market.
“An analysis of Bitcoin’s Cost Basis Distribution shows a dense cluster of investor cost basis levels between $117,000 and $122,000,” Glassnode reports. “This indicates significant accumulation occurred at these higher price levels.”
“Noticeably, there remains an air-gap of volume just beneath the spot price, from $115k to $110k, a result of price rallying through the region without much opportunity for coins to transact along the way.”
The lack of cost-basis support in the $110,000–$115,000 range leaves Bitcoin vulnerable to a potential price dip, similar to how CME Group’s Bitcoin futures gaps—often formed over weekends—tend to get filled.
“While not every gap like this needs to be back-filled, there is a gravitational pull,” Glassnode explains. “The market may seek to retest this zone to confirm whether support will emerge, making it a critical area to watch during any potential pullback.”
Speculator Profits Shape Key Bitcoin Price Targets
The STH cost basis can be further dissected to represent the average purchase price of progressively newer investors, effectively creating a ladder of potential support levels.
These support levels also help identify future price points where short-term holder (STH) cohorts may reach specific profit thresholds—potentially triggering sell-offs.
Glassnode uses standard deviation analysis to project a possible local top around $140,000 if BTC/USD enters price discovery mode.
“If the market breaks out decisively, the $141K area will likely act as the next major resistance zone,” Glassnode notes, “where sell-side pressure could escalate quickly, aligning with the +2σ band.”
