On-chain data shows minimal exchange inflows, signaling caution but no panic among holders.
* Bitcoin has held near $92,600 despite Venezuela tensions, with no signs of panic selling.
* Strong demand for $100K call options shows traders are betting on further upside in 2026.
* Stable spot prices and bullish derivatives activity suggest early-year gains are driven by optimism, not short-term events.
Bitcoin (BTC) has maintained robust performance in early 2026, trading near $92,600 after briefly climbing above $93,000 in early Asian trading hours. Reports of a U.S. operation in Venezuela have renewed market attention on geopolitical risk, yet metrics suggest investors are observing developments rather than selling off.
On-Chain Metrics Show Caution, Not Panic
According to CryptoQuant, Exchange Netflow data, a key indicator of whether Bitcoin is moving into or out of exchanges, shows no evidence of large-scale inflows that would suggest panic selling.
“Despite some price sensitivity, there is no sign of large-scale Bitcoin inflows to exchanges. Panic selling is absent, suggesting the market is cautious but not fearful,” noted CryptoQuant’s message on X.
Historically, Bitcoin has shown resilience during localized military conflicts, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with only brief volatility and no major outflows.
Exchange Netflow tends to react more clearly to structural economic confrontations or regulatory actions, rather than isolated geopolitical events. For now, Bitcoin holders appear to be observing developments in Venezuela rather than reducing exposure.
Traders Target $100K Call Options
Meanwhile, derivatives markets reflect strong bullish sentiment for 2026. Call options with strike prices above $100,000 on platforms like Deribit are seeing heightened demand, reflecting trader optimism that Bitcoin could push significantly higher in 2026.
According to Deribit Insights, a rapid operation in Venezuela had little effect on BTC options during this period, highlighting that market momentum was driven primarily by trader positioning.
Notably, 6,000 January 30th $100K calls were purchased in two large trades on December 30-31, with Bitcoin averaging $88,300 during that span. Additional January 9th $95K calls were bought on the final day of 2025, bringing the net spend to roughly $7 million.
Interest in these high-strike calls suggests that market participants are not merely trading short-term price swings but are structuring positions that profit if Bitcoin breaches key psychological and technical levels.
As per Deribit, the call skew increased, signaling growing trader optimism for Bitcoin in early 2026, even though it remains slightly below neutral.
Why This Matters
Sustained demand for $100K call options signals that traders expect Bitcoin to continue its upward trajectory, reinforcing market confidence despite geopolitical uncertainty.
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