The underlying bullish trend in the price of Bitcoin remains intact despite uncertainty regarding the likelihood of a US Federal Funds rate cut at the next monetary policy decision on Wednesday, September 17.
The bullish cycle linked to the 2024 halving continues, and BTC/USD is still under the technical influence of the bullish breakout in early July from a bull flag continuation pattern.
What can we now expect from August from a technical standpoint for Bitcoin and altcoin prices?
1. August seasonality is favorable for BTC only in the final year of the 4-year cycle, and 2025 is the final year of the current cycle
August does not generally show strong average or median performance for BTC from a statistical seasonality perspective. However, when examining performance based on the year within Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle, we see that every final year of the cycle has featured a bullish August. This does not mean the market will rise steadily from August 1 to 31, but statistically, the end-of-month performance should be positive.
2. The positive correlation between Bitcoin’s price and global M2 liquidity suggests a favorable trend in August
Another factor supporting a bullish August is the positive correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the projected global M2 liquidity 12 weeks ahead. This correlation has worked well throughout the current cycle and suggests August will be bullish — though caution is warranted, as a correction is expected in September according to this approach.
3. From a chart analysis perspective, Bitcoin remains under the bullish influence of a bull flag continuation pattern
Bitcoin broke out to the upside from a bullish flag in early July, and this setup remains the dominant technical factor. The theoretical target of this pattern is $130,000, with an invalidation level below $110,000.
4. Altcoins are trending toward the previous cycle’s record highs from late 2021
The chart below shows the underlying trend in altcoins, excluding BTC, ETH, and stablecoins. Chart analysis also conveys a bullish message for this altcoin index in August. The invalidation level is below the $690B support.
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