According to a well-known crypto analyst, Bitcoin’s (BTC) long-standing four-year cycle can no longer dictate the direction of the crypto market. For months, both Bitcoin and major altcoins have struggled to regain their previous highs, while traditional markets have flourished. This difference in performance has sparked discussions about whether the old cycle rule still applies and what could come next for the broader market.
A popular crypto analyst with over 227,000 followers on X, @theunipcs, has announced that the Bitcoin four-year cycle is dead. He stated that this market cycle is now unable to determine the behavior of BTC and many major altcoins.
Traditionally, crypto’s four-year cycles have relied on the Bitcoin halving to reduce supply and trigger price surges. However, based on Unipcs’ analysis, these mechanisms no longer govern the market, especially as factors such as monetary policy, Spot ETFs, liquidity flows, macroeconomic factors, and dramatic liquidation events have significantly altered it.
Unipcs emphasized that the market has been in a long phase of consolidation and accumulation, showing little of the explosive activity historically expected after halving events. He pointed out that the price of Bitcoin and leading altcoins have remained depressed for months, trading roughly 30% or more below their all-time highs.
This decline stands in stark contrast to other major asset classes, which continue to climb. The analyst noted that Silver has been hitting record levels almost daily, while Gold continues to climb to new peaks. Additionally, major US stock indexes, such as the S&P 500, are hitting fresh highs, while crypto remains stagnant and underperforming.
Notably, this extended period of weakness is highlighted by Bitcoin’s crash below $85,000 earlier this month after peaking above $126,000 during the first week of October. Many altcoins, including Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and others, have followed a similar trajectory, surging explosively before plunging to new lows.
Technical indicators, such as the Fear & Greed Index, indicate that investor sentiment remains deeply negative, while analyst insights point to a bearish market structure. Overall, Unipcs’ analysis signals the possible end of the historically repetitive 4-year cycle, though he suggests it could mark the beginning of a new bullish phase for crypto.
Despite the prolonged slump, Unipcs believes that the ongoing accumulation trend could end soon, triggering an aggressive rally in the crypto market. He believes that once this happens, Bitcoin and major altcoins could surge explosively to new all-time highs once the dormant market transitions into a new bullish phase.
While the timing of his optimistic outlook remains uncertain, the analyst is confident in the market’s potential for a decisive breakout and recovery. Unipcs has stated that the crypto market will eventually catch up and potentially outperform all asset classes soon.
