Bitcoin’s repeated inability to sustain a breakout above the $100,000 mark has reignited a debate across the crypto community.
The crypto asset has traded within the $80,000 to $95,000 range since approximately November 21, 2025, a period of nearly 50 days. On Monday BTC surged as high as $94,764 reigniting hopes of a continued bullish momentum, before it retraced to $90,000 zone.
The price is currently trading at $90,052 at the time of reporting, with recent price action characterized by back-and-forth movement.
While many interpret the delay as a psychological hurdle, analysts suggest deeper market mechanics such as liquidity shifts, macroeconomic pressures, and institutional positioning are the real forces at play
Bitcoin could rally toward the $103,000-$105,000 range within the next few weeks, according to the latest market analysis, as a key technical indicator continues to flash bullish signals. Despite price action remaining rangebound, analysts point to a breakout on Bitcoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) as a strong leading indicator of potential upside.
Trader BitBull noted in a post on X that Bitcoin’s weekly RSI broke out of a three-month downtrend in December and has continued to hold above its breakout level. The RSI, which measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold, had been in a downtrend since September before reversing direction near the close of 2025.
“This breakout mirrors a similar setup from earlier last year, which led to several months of gains following Bitcoin’s local low near $75,000,” BitBull said, adding that BTC could reach between $103,000 and $105,000 within three to four weeks.
On lower timeframes, data from TradingView suggests additional bullish signals. The four-hour chart shows a potential hidden bullish divergence, where RSI prints lower lows while price forms higher lows. This typically indicates weakening sell-side pressure and could support Bitcoin’s attempt to turn the $90,000 zone into a strong base.
However, not all analysts are convinced that BTC bearish move is over. Some continue to warn that Bitcoin may revisit lower levels as it searches for a more durable support structure. Among the more bearish scenarios is a potential return to April’s lows near $75,000, with some even predicting a dip below the 2026 yearly open.
Analysts say the next major catalyst could come from U.S. macroeconomic data, particularly the jobs report. Weak labor numbers could strengthen the case for further Federal Reserve rate cuts, which tend to benefit risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Lower interest rates make Bitcoin more attractive relative to low-yield assets such as bonds.
While Bitcoin has climbed close to $95,000 earlier this week, its highest level since November, analysts warn that this rebound may prove temporary. Bitcoin remains up more than 2% in 2026 but is still 29% below its all-time high above $126,000 recorded in early October.
Bitcoin’s near-term outlook remains finely balanced between bullish technical signals and lingering macroeconomic uncertainty. While weekly and lower-timeframe RSI breakouts suggest momentum could soon tilt in favor of buyers, price action must still overcome key resistance levels to confirm a sustained trend reversal.
If bulls can successfully defend the $90,000 zone and reclaim the $93,000-$95,000 resistance band with strong volume, a move toward the $103,000-$105,000 range becomes increasingly likely. Such a breakout could attract sidelined capital and reignite broader market optimism, potentially setting the stage for a renewed test of all-time highs later in the quarter.
Bitcoin’s next decisive move will likely be shaped by a combination of technical confirmation and macroeconomic catalysts, particularly U.S. inflation data, labor market trends, and signals from the Federal Reserve.
