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The analysis, conducted by InfluenceMap, assessed public communications from 1,000 companies and 330 lobby groups published between 2022 and 2024. These included reports, press releases, website pages and advertisements.
Almost 300 of these entities used the term ‘just transition’ at least once within the timeframe.
Seven in ten of the communications items assessed included a broad reference to a ‘just transition’, simply using the language without elaborating further on its meaning or how it would be delivered.
The term refers to measures that ensure that the move to a low-carbon economy is socially equitable, with benefits being fairly accessible to communities and workers – not just corporates and investors. Similarly, the costs of the change in a just transition should be borne by those most able to pay and those responsible for emissions in the first instance.
InfluenceMap found that only one-fifth of the communications included any detail of the steps required to meaningfully implement a just transition.
Senior analyst Jennifer Gullery said: “This research demonstrates how corporate actors have recognised the value in using the term ‘just transition’ in order to build public and policymaker trust. However, most of these communications lack any demonstration of, or commitment to, robust action for driving that just transition.”
Fossil fuel influence
InfluenceMap also looked at whether the businesses and trade bodies acknowledged the need for a rapid low-carbon transition, in line with climate science.
While one-fifth of the communications did emphasise this urgency and invoke the language of science or the Paris Agreement, one-tenth used the term ‘just transition’ to promote the continued use of fossil fuels.
These included messages from Shell and the International Gas Union.
The latter stated in a press release that “natural gas is and will continue to be the catalyst for and foundation of a more sustainable global energy system, energising a just transition.”
The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) science-aligned pathway to a net-zero global energy system by 2050 involves reducing natural gas demand by around one-third by 2030. This can be achieved by electrifying heating and industry, while scaling renewables and nuclear in the electricity generation mix.
A new global agreement on the horizon
Negotiators at this year’s UN climate summit in Brazil, COP30, are striving to agree on a new Belém Action Mechanism for a Global Just Transition (BAM). The concept has been supported by the G77 and China.
Such a mechanism would require countries to set out firm plans for a just transition as they deliver their national decarbonisation frameworks. They would also be compelled to report regularly on progress.
It could additionally include clauses compelling wealthy countries to share energy transition technology with developing nations.
The idea of the BAM was created by the Climate Action Network, the largest international coalition of environmental nonprofits, and the UN’s Women and Gender Constituency to the UNFCCC.
COP30 is due to conclude on Friday, 21 November. However, every COP so far has run over time.
