CINCINNATI — The Bengals are 2-2 on the 2025 campaign, but have played more like a 0-4 team, and that’s been stamped firmly by the underlying numbers. ESPN Contributor and DVOA pioneer Aaron Schatz broke down some first-quarter standout numbers from the opening stint of the season, and Cincinnati stood out in a bad way.
DVOA views the Bengals as the NFL’s fourth-worst 2-2 team since at least 1978.
“Two seasons ago, quarterback Jake Browning had to take over for an injured Joe Burrow with seven games left in the Bengals’ year,” Schatz wrote. “He went 4-3 and had a surprisingly strong QBR of 60.1. Many thought that when Burrow got injured this season, the Bengals might not be in much trouble with Browning filling the gap again.
“That turned out to be very wrong. Browning has struggled with a 42.4 QBR, and the Bengals have been destroyed in two straight losses. It also doesn’t help that their first two wins were close, and their defense has not been good (27th in DVOA). Only the Titans have a worse point differential than Cincinnati’s minus-58 this season.”
Historically, it doesn’t get much better for these teams in some kind of surprise rebound that boosts them to a winning record.
On average, they have won 6-7 games. The 1992 Colts finished 9-8 and are the only team in the bottom 10 to win more than six games. That Colts squad was 8% better through four games by DVOA than this Bengals team.
“Maybe the Bengals aren’t going to be quite this bad all season,” Schat continued. “They still have receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and Browning isn’t the worst quarterback in the league. (He’s 26th out of 33 qualifiers in QBR.) The Bengals have an average remaining strength of schedule based on the current DVOA of their future opponents.
“However, only the 1992 Colts of the other 10 teams rebounded to a winning record — and they were without starting quarterback Jeff George for their first three games. The other teams all ended with double-digit losses. Without Burrow at quarterback for most (if not all) of the 2025 season, it’s hard to see the Bengals avoiding 10 or more losses.”
This falls in line with ESPN’s Football Power Index, which has Cincinnati favored to beat the Browns to close the season, and that’s it when it comes to projected wins.
The Bengals will surely win more than three games this season based on variance, but history says don’t hold your breath for a turnaround in 2025.
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