On today’s Brussels Playbook Podcast: Zoya and Sarah discuss the EU’s divided views on enlargement and how the Commission wants AI to help it ensure young people are treated fairly.
HAY THERE! Gerardo Fortuna back in the Playbook saddle, hoping reporters don’t make asses of themselves today when covering European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen’s meeting with the horse, pony and donkey welfare lobby. More on that later in the email. Let’s dive in …
DRIVING THE DAY
FAST-TRACK DERAILMENT: Ukraine’s hopes of accelerated European Union membership have been scuttled at a Brussels dinner, with EU ambassadors telling Ursula von der Leyen’s chief of staff that member countries won’t embrace the Commission’s controversial “reverse enlargement” proposal. The resistance effectively shuts down the membership-first, integration-later model the executive was pushing in a bid to have Ukraine join by 2027.
Dual disappointment: It’s another blow for Kyiv as the EU also tries to salvage an urgently needed financial aid package being held up by a standoff with Hungary.
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Circling the wagons: This wasn’t a decision the diners came up with while awaiting their contorno. Several key capitals had already coordinated their hard stance on Ukraine’s EU accession ahead of the dinner, where von der Leyen’s powerful chief of staff Björn Seibert set out the Commission’s thinking on the reverse enlargement mechanism.
Too close to the sun: As previously reported by POLITICO, reverse enlargement entails granting membership and then progressively building up privileges. It was one of four options circulated by the Commission ahead of Wednesday’s dinner, Gabriel Gavin reports.
Back to the drawing board: One diplomat described the dinner’s atmosphere as “normal,” but said the message from capitals was blunt. “It’s done. Reverse enlargement isn’t going anywhere,” another diplomat told me shortly afterward — suggesting Seibert may have to rethink the Commission’s centerpiece idea.
Ray of nope: Four other EU diplomats firmly rejected reverse enlargement as a viable strategy for Ukraine — or any other country. “They have created false hopes,” one senior diplomat told Playbook’s Nicholas Vinocur. “Now, we have to correct that and tell them: ‘Well, actually, this reverse enlargement is dead on arrival.'”
Back to basics: The draft conclusions for the March 19 European Council — which have already begun to circulate — reference both the loan dispute and the enlargement debate. Early drafts suggest leaders are expected to support the bloc’s traditional merit-based approach to accession in the next EU summit, reinforcing capitals’ preference for the existing framework. That would leave the Commission’s hope of Ukraine joining soon stone-dead.
Too ambitious: “We want to anchor Ukraine in the EU … but we cannot tear up our procedures and scrap the merit-based system,” another diplomat said. “The point is to find a realistic way forward” — “realistic” being code for something that takes account of the political sensitivities of national capitals.
Talking to God: Asked why Seibert was at the ambassadorial chow down rather than Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos, one diplomat joked: “We know the Commission is pyramidal. Coreper does not want to waste time. It needs to talk directly to God.”
Desperate times, desperate measures: Kos was instead in Berlin Wednesday, where she defended the need for new thinking on enlargement. The current model dates back to the accession of Spain and Portugal more than 40 years ago and was “designed for a stable, rules-based world that no longer exists,” Kos said.
State of confusion: One senior EU official told POLITICO that enlargement surfaced in Coreper largely “because of the fuss created by wild ideas.” Renew MEP Nathalie Loiseau was equally blunt, warning the approach risks creating “confusion in member states and disappointment in candidate countries.”
ON THE UKRAINE LOAN: Another line in the European Council’s draft conclusions has sparked some attention. In point 9, leaders “welcome the adoption of the loan by the co-legislators and look forward to the first disbursement.” The wording isn’t even in square brackets — usually the sign that language is still up for negotiation.
So … case closed? Hardly. The pipeline dispute linked to Hungary’s veto over the €90 billion loan package for Ukraine hasn’t been unresolved, despite reports the EU is pressing Ukraine to allow access to the pipeline for inspection — Budapest’s main demand.
Behind the scenes, several member countries have also pressed Kyiv to grant inspectors access to the pipeline but have been rebuffed. Ukraine is insisting it needs time to assess the scale of the damage, multiple EU diplomats told POLITICO’s Ben Munster (and as the FT first reported).
Low-key pressure: A call Tuesday between von der Leyen and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy touched on the pipeline issue, as Playbook mentioned yesterday, though it’s not clear how far Brussels pushed Kyiv. One EU official suggested to Ben that the Commission prefers to pressure Ukraine quietly on this, hoping to avoid a public push to restore oil flows that would ultimately benefit Russia.
SOLIDARITY WITH SPAIN
INNOCENT ABROAD: Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz made multiple efforts to speak to each other yesterday evening as a diplomatic spat between their countries threatened to boil over, my Berlin Playbook colleague Hans von der Burchard hears. But Spanish fury over Merz’s perceived silence after Donald Trump’s tongue-lashing Tuesday shows no sign of cooling.
Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares told radio station Cadena SER last night he expected “solidarity from a country with which we share a currency, a single market, a single trade policy when it comes to commercial coercion,” POLITICO’s Aitor Hernández-Morales reports.
Sense of betrayal: Merz appeared subdued when sitting alongside Trump in the Oval Office and at times even appeared to be supportive of Trump’s reprimand. His initial attempts to correct the situation did little to hose down the controversy.
You’re no Merkel: Albares said he couldn’t imagine former German Chancellors Angela Merkel or Olaf Scholz standing by while Trump ripped into Spain. “I don’t think this action reflected the spirit of the founder of that political party that Chancellor Merz leads. This is not reflective of Konrad Adenauer or of the European values with which that party was born. This current leadership has different values.”
She said, he said: White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt had earlier defended Trump threatening “terrible” Spain with trade sanctions in retaliation for denying the U.S. access to bases for missions against Iran. She claimed Madrid had “agreed to cooperate with the U.S. military,” adding the Spanish government had heard Trump’s message “loud and clear.”
Albares shot back: “She might be the White House spokesperson, but I’m the foreign minister of Spain.” There had been no agreement, he said.
Champions on both sides: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accused Madrid of having “put American lives at risk.” Meanwhile, the most senior Spaniard in Brussels — Commission Vice President Teresa Ribera — urged the EU to respond to Trump’s “bully tone” with unity. French President Emmanuel Macron expressed solidarity with Spain and European Council President António Costa said the EU would “always ensure that the interests of its member states are fully protected.”
It all adds to the sense … that the U.S. may be having a FAFO moment, realizing it needs its EU allies — and not just the right-wing populists making a beeline for Washington.
MIDDLE EAST WAR
EU HUDDLES WITH GULF STATES: EU foreign ministers will “show solidarity” with their Gulf counterparts facing a barrage of Iranian drone and missile attacks during a virtual meeting of the Foreign Affairs Council this morning. The session is set to kick off at 11 a.m., preceded by an in-person doorstep by EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas at 10:30 a.m.
War of attrition: The EU-Gulf Cooperation Council meeting comes against the backdrop of a widening war in the Middle East (follow all the latest on our live blog), as Iran seeks to exhaust Gulf countries’ air defenses and pressure them to push for an end to the U.S.-Israeli war against Tehran’s theocratic regime.
A Commission spokesperson said EU and Gulf ministers would work together toward “de-escalation” of the conflict, which has seen drone and missile strikes across the Middle East, leaving thousands of European citizens stranded.
Solidarity, mostly: A Middle Eastern diplomat told Playbook the high-level talks are mostly about the EU showing political solidarity with Gulf states, rather than hashing out concrete actions such as sending air defenses or evacuating Europeans from the region. Still, those issues could come up, the diplomat added.
What Gulf countries want: The two sides are working on a joint statement. Gulf capitals are particularly concerned about replenishing their stocks of air-defense missiles, which are being rapidly depleted in the Iranian attacks — something only national governments can provide.
What the EU wants: Brussels’ immediate concern is the safety of Europeans in the region. “For Europe, this is a dangerous moment. The safety of hundreds of thousands of our citizens in the region is at stake,” Kallas said in Poland yesterday. So far, however, no coordinated EU evacuation effort has been launched.
WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING: The U.S. State Department said Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Cyprus’ Foreign Minister Constantinos Kombos yesterday to discuss the escalating conflict in the Middle East, after Cyprus was targeted by drones. “The leaders reaffirmed the strong partnership between the United States and Cyprus,” State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott said in a statement.
PRANDIAL IRAN TALK: Iran war will also come up when EU home affairs ministers meet in Brussels today — although, only over lunch. Ministers are set to discuss “the possible impact of developments on the EU’s internal security,” along with “possible mitigating measures,” per the agenda minutes.
Migration question: A senior EU official said possible migratory impacts from the crisis in the Middle East would not be part of that discussion — “at least at this point.” Commission spokespeople have stressed there is no indication of changes in migratory flows yet.
Private worries: Still, some European officials are quietly concerned about what could come next. One told Playbook they fear a potential refugee wave originating from Iran — one that may include the millions of displaced Afghans living in the country. The official noted Europe’s political mood has hardened since the 2015-16 migration crisis and capitals are already thinking about how to avoid a repeat.
Also on the agenda: Implementation of the EU’s migration and asylum pact ahead of its June rollout … voluntary returns … cooperation with transit countries including Lebanon and Libya … and plans to revamp Europol.
Migration file moves: In the European Parliament, the lead negotiator on the returns regulation — aimed at making it easier to deport rejected asylum-seekers — has circulated a compromise text to fellow negotiators on Wednesday, although not without grumbling after a chaotic round of talks and the cancellation of a planned meeting.
Decision time: Malik Azmani, of Renew Europe, said the proposal would create “a sound legal system” allowing member states to improve the EU’s return policy while ensuring it can withstand legal scrutiny. With Parliament having already postponed a vote once, pressure is mounting to move ahead. “It is now time to make a decision, take responsibility and move forward,” Azmani said.
**Is deregulation the key to growth or a risk to Europe’s regulatory legacy? From simplification to enlargement and sector-by-sector competitiveness, the POLITICO Competitive Europe Summit dives into the EU’s most pressing economic debates. Join us in Brussels on March 24.**
GENERATIONAL AND GENDER FAIRNESS
TWO VERY SOCIALIST STRATEGIES: The Commission will adopt today via the “finalization procedure” — for those files approved outside the weekly College meeting — two strategies spearheaded by socialist commissioners: the EU’s gender equality strategy from Executive Vice President Roxana Mînzatu and the intergenerational fairness strategy from Intergenerational Fairness Commissioner Glenn Micallef.
AI-guaranteed fairness: Pieter Haeck, Zia Weise and I got a sneak peek at the latter’s deliverables. The standout: an AI-enabled policy evaluation widget called the Future Balance Tool, developed with the United Nations Development Program’s Beyond Lab and the Commission’s Joint Research Centre. Its purpose is to help policymakers assess long-term impacts from the earliest stages of decision-making. One official described it to me as “AI assessing human judgment.”
ChatGPT for policymaking: Playbook took the prototype for a spin. First, you create a policy project, define the problem to be solved, set goals and budgets, and identify the target population. You can also generate alternative policy scenarios by selecting focus areas and objectives. The system then evaluates those options across several criteria — weighing both immediate and long-term effects — and visualizes how each performs over time.
Not an impact assessment … yet: The tool, which should become publicly available in April, could eventually evolve into something more formal. AI models are already being used within the Commission and tools like this could feed into the forthcoming revision of the EU’s Better Regulation framework, according to one EU official. This would potentially support the impact assessments that every legislative proposal must undergo.
Also in the mix: The strategy includes about 15 deliverables, among them a new public fairness index using post-growth indicators to track how policies affect different generations. The Commission also plans to proclaim Nov. 16 as Intergenerational Fairness Day. The date marks the moment last year when 150 randomly selected citizens — chosen by post code — presented recommendations to the Commission that helped shape the strategy.
NEW GENDER EQUALITY STRATEGY: The other strategy to be presented today is expected to set out a new batch of measures for 2026-2030 to advance equality across the EU. The plan is “focused on women and girls, but also on men and boys — both as enablers and beneficiaries of a more gender-equal society,” according to a draft seen by Playbook.
Key points: The strategy structures its actions around eight principles, spanning freedom from gender-based violence, equal pay and economic empowerment, as well as equal and safe participation in public and political life. It also includes an external dimension aimed at better linking the EU’s internal gender-equality policies with its efforts on the global stage.
IN OTHER NEWS
MEPS LOOK AWAY: In Strasbourg, the center-right European People’s Party Group (EPP), the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists Group and the far-right Patriots for Europe blocked a request by the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) to add a plenary debate next week on U.S. trade threats.
Put some ice on it: Meanwhile, top trade lawmakers in the European Parliament decided — again — to keep the EU-U.S. trade agreement frozen amid volatile transatlantic relations. Lead negotiators will meet again on March 17. If the committee eventually gives the green light, the deal could reach plenary on March 25-26.
While we’re at it: Political leaders have also decided to shelve a long-awaited report on EU-U.S. relations after parties failed to agree on its contents, per three parliamentary officials, Nick Vinocur writes in to report.
Any time but now: The report — months in the making — was meant to assess transatlantic ties during the turbulent Trump era. But with one crisis after another, the EPP, the S&D and the Greens were unable to agree on the latest draft version. Group leaders ultimately decided to “park” the file indefinitely.
The sticking point was language describing the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. S&D and the Greens pushed for stronger references to international law, while the EPP argued for a softer formulation, according to two of the officials.
HORSING AROUND: Von der Leyen will attend a working lunch in the European Parliament with members of the European Horse Network. Organized by Irish MEP Nina Carberry, who won seven races at the Cheltenham Festival during her time as an amateur jockey, the discussion will focus on the future of the Common Agricultural Policy and the competitiveness of Europe’s equine sector, an organizer told Playbook.
ALSO TODAY: Consumer Protection Commissioner Michael McGrath will present the annual report on Safety Gate at 11 a.m. The network, linking authorities in 30 countries, flags unsafe products sold on European markets. Expect alerts to rise, with many linked to goods from China and products sold through e-commerce platforms operating in the EU.
It’s in the mail: “More than 15 million small parcels enter the European Union every day,” McGrath told Playbook ahead of the event. “That makes it all the more important to strengthen and modernize the tools ensuring the products reaching our homes, schools and workplaces are safe.”
AGENDA
— Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers the opening address at a working lunch of the European Horse Network, hosted by MEPs Hilde Vautmans and Nina Carberry.
— Justice and Home Affairs Council.
— European Parliament President Roberta Metsola is in Malta, where she meets students at St. Aloysius College and visits Tastees Manufacturing Limited and Hospice Malta.
— EU High Representative Kaja Kallas meets Swiss Defense Minister Martin Pfister and Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis … co-chairs the EU-Gulf Cooperation Council Ministerial Meeting via video link … and delivers the Churchill Lecture at the University of Zurich.
— Commission Executive Vice President Raffaele Fitto meets Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister Vladimir Bolea.
— Commission Executive Vice President Teresa Ribera delivers the closing speech at the High-Level EU Merger Guidelines Conference 2026 and Implementation Dialogue.
— Commission Executive Vice President Henna Virkkunen visits the European Defence Agency.
— Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen co-chairs the High-Level Food Dialogue with Executive Vice President Stéphane Séjourné.
— Commissioner Hadja Lahbib meets Norwegian Justice and Public Security Minister Astri Aad-Hansen.
— The Political and Security Committee meets at 10 a.m.
— EU foreign ministers hold an informal meeting at 11 a.m.
— Plenary session of the Committee of the Regions.
BRUSSELS CORNER
WEATHER: Mostly sunny. High 19C.
BELGIUM TO START EVACUATIONS FRIDAY: Belgium will start evacuating Belgians caught up in the violence in the Middle East from Friday, beginning with people stranded in the UAE and Qatar. Buses and planes will shuttle the travelers to a nearby country that offers open airspace. From that point onward, the Belgians will be asked to arrange a commercial flight or travel home on a military plane, broadcaster VRT reported. Evacuees will be charged a “reasonable” price for military transport.
TRANSPORT DISRUPTIONS AHEAD:
— Time to plot a new route to Midi station: Bad news for readers who live in Saint-Gilles, Forest or Uccle and rely on the 4 and 10 pre-metros to shuttle them to Midi station: MIVB on Wednesday announced the tram lines will be interrupted between Porte de Hal and Midi station for a year starting April 27.
— No March 12 takeoffs: There will be no departing flights at Brussels Airport on March 12 due to a strike by security and handling staff, the airport warned Wednesday. Some arriving flights may also be canceled.
MINISTERIAL COCAINE TEST: Flemish Sports Minister Annick De Ridder, a member of Prime Minister Bart De Wever’s N-VA party, took to Instagram Wednesday to announce that she’d tested negative for cocaine. Her remarkable post followed a heated debate in the Flemish parliament, in which fellow politician Gwendolyn Rutten told De Ridder to “go sniff some more.” Rutten has apologized for her remark.
SPOTTED at a gathering of Croats from EU institutions at Grand Central in Brussels: Croatian Deputy Prime Minister Davor Božinović; political adviser to Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner Mateo Matijević; Croatia’s NATO spokesperson Blanka Glasenhardt; DG Move Deputy Director-General Maja Bakran Marcich; MEP Karlo Ressler; Mediterranean Commissioner Dubravka Šuica’s Head of Cabinet Tena Mišetić; and POLITICO’s Sebastian Starcevic.
BIRTHDAYS: Former MEP Andris Ameriks; Felix Uedelhoven from GE Healthcare Europe; Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić; former Hungarian Prime Minister Gordon Bajnai; former British Minister Paul Drayson; Kellen Europe’s Simona Romeo; João Lourenço, president of Angola, and former Spanish Prime Minister Felipe González.
THANKS TO: Nicholas Vinocur, Jacopo Barigazzi, Hans von der Burchard, Hanne Cokelaere, Max Griera, Seb Starcevic, Playbook editors Alex Spence and James Panichi, reporter Milena Wälde and producer Dean Southwell.
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