Labor’s plan to achieve a reduction of between 62 and 70 per cent on 2005 emissions levels has come under increasing scrutiny in the wake of rising energy costs and delays to critical infrastructure projects.
Higher power prices in particular have sparked a backlash against the government’s pursuit of net zero, with the Coalition abandoning the policy in favour of plans aimed at ensuring energy remains secure and affordable.
Some experts have also questioned whether Labor’s targets are achievable, given significant delays to the construction of vital transmissions lines and the need to replace baseload power supplied by the nation’s ageing coal fired plants.
That view has been bolstered by a study from Net Zero Australia, a group of experts from the University of Melbourne, the University of Queensland and Princeton University, which found the short-term pipeline of renewables projects will need to almost double if Australia is to reach net zero by 2050.
The report’s forecasts, which are based on current government policies and instillation trends, suggest Australia is currently on track to hit net zero by around 2060, assuming the trend in emissions reductions from 2016 continues.
However, Net Zero Australia noted this would be unlikely as abatement through Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry practices, currently the largest source of Australia’s emissions reductions, would become “increasingly difficult” over time.
As a result, the report found the nation could fail to hit net zero until as late as 2065, even assuming the government’s ambitious renewables rollout continues as planned without further delays or disruption.
Net Zero Australia found large-scale wind farms are currently taking close to a decade to develop on average, with solar farms taking around five years to complete.
Lengthy development times are being further exacerbated by planning bottlenecks and approval delays, which both pose a risk to ongoing projects and disincentivise developers from committing to new ones.
Ballooning costs are also slowing the rollout of new renewables projects, while efforts to make reductions in other areas – such as encouraging the adoption of electric vehicles – have stalled in recent months.
The need to boost generation is made more urgent by the impending retirement of Australia’s coal fired power plants.
A report by the Australian Energy Market Operator published in early December warned households and businesses faced “risks to reliability” if ageing plants were forced to remain online longer than anticipated and additional renewables were not brought into the grid.
“While momentum in investment and delivery continues to build, challenges remain in delivering essential infrastructure at the pace required,” AEMO CEO Daniel Westerman said at the time.
Instability in the nation’s grid could also push up prices further, in what would come as a double blow for many homes and businesses.
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