ISLAMABAD: Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb on Monday warned that Pakistan’s economic future hinges on tackling two “critical existential challenges” — rapid population growth and accelerating climate change — issues he said directly threaten the country’s long-term growth potential.
Speaking at a session titled Accelerating Economic Growth for a More Optimal Balance during the Pakistan Population Summit 2025, organised by Dawn Media Group, Aurangzeb said Pakistan cannot achieve projected milestones — including the widely cited estimate of becoming a $3 trillion economy by 2047 — unless it confronts these core pressures.
He said Pakistan has long understood the nature of its population problem, but the challenge now lies in implementation. Drawing a parallel with global climate-finance negotiations, the minister stressed that while technical ministries craft policy, it is ultimately finance ministries that must integrate these priorities into budgets and planning.
Aurangzeb welcomed the participation of religious scholars at the summit, saying their role in clarifying misconceptions around population management was essential for building consensus. “Pakistan cannot shy away from action, especially when credible voices and evidence-based guidance are aligned,” he said.
On the economic front, Aurangzeb said climate impacts are already weighing on growth, noting that this year’s floods are expected to cut GDP by around 0.5%. He added that population pressures further dilute economic progress, as headline growth loses meaning if population expansion outpaces economic gains.
He emphasised harnessing Pakistan’s “population dividend”, with 64% of citizens under age 30, and said future economic transformation would not come from government hiring but from freelancers, IT professionals, and young innovators driving the digital economy. He pointed to the country’s growing participation in AI, blockchain, Web 3.0 and global crypto activity, underscoring the need for a regulatory environment that protects and empowers digital talent.
Aurangzeb also highlighted the severe issue of stunting — affecting 40% of children under five — describing it as “intellectual poverty” that undermines the future labour force. Learning poverty, especially among girls, must also be addressed, he said, noting that female workforce participation is vital for sustainable economic development.
Rising urbanisation, inadequate water and sanitation systems and weak nutrition are other contributors to stunting, the minister said, calling for coordinated action on birth spacing, clean water, sanitation and nutrition.
Discussing financing needs, Aurangzeb said multilateral partners — including the World Bank, which has committed $2 billion annually under its 10-year Country Partnership Framework — have linked priority funding to improvements in child stunting, foundational learning and climate resilience. “It is now Pakistan’s responsibility to develop investable, bankable projects to fully utilise this support,” he said.
He stressed that Pakistan cannot rely on repeated international appeals or borrowing for every crisis, noting that the federal and provincial governments jointly funded this year’s flood rescue and relief operations without seeking external assistance.
Aurangzeb said resources must be redirected towards national priorities and that upcoming National Finance Commission (NFC) discussions would treat population as a central factor in horizontal distribution. He also underscored the importance of public-private partnerships and outcome-based financing, citing the Social Impact Financing Framework and the forthcoming Pakistan Skills Impact Bond as key steps for large-scale skills development and youth employment.
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