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The Congressional Budget Office warned yet again that the US is on an unsustainable fiscal path, jacking up its estimate of deficits for the coming decade by $US1.4 trillion thanks in part to President Donald Trump’s 2025 tax law and immigration policies.
Trump’s signature fiscal package from last July, which extended his 2017 tax cuts and implemented a number of new breaks, is estimated to increase deficits by $US4.7 trillion over the next 10 years, the Congressional Budget Office said in a report. The cost of the administration’s immigration enforcement actions are expected to add $US500 billion, it also said. Those losses are projected to outweigh Trump’s dramatic import duties, which have taken the average effective tariff rate above 13 per cent, according to an estimate from Bloomberg Economics — the highest since at least the 1940s. The CBO projects the increased revenue from tariffs will reduce deficits by $US3 trillion. Net outlays on interest are also expected to drive deficits higher, surging from $US1 trillion in 2026 to $US2.1 trillion in 2036, due to the large amount of debt and higher average interest rates. The CBO expects US economic growth to be stronger in 2026, at 2.2 per cent compared with the 1.8 per cent it had projected in January last year. It then sees a moderation to 1.8 per cent in 2027 and 2028 and remaining at that rate on average through 2036. That’s well short of the 3 per cent growth rate Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is targeting. President Donald Trump this week said he thinks the economy can expand at a 15 per cent or faster pace once his nominee for chairman of the Federal Reserve is confirmed.
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