RECAP: Most Asian markets retreated yesterday amid end-of-quarter repositioning by investors, after concerns about high valuations and mixed signals from US Federal Reserve officials on interest rates stalled a record-breaking rally on Wall Street.
The SET index moved in a tight range of 1,268.49 and 1,296.42 points this week, before closing yesterday at 1,278.74, down 1.1% from the previous week, with daily turnover averaging 36.33 billion baht.
Retail investors were net buyers of 5.82 billion baht. Institutional investors were net sellers of 4.18 billion baht, followed by brokerage firms at 1.2 billion and foreign investors at 435.45 million.
NEWSMAKERS: President Donald Trump announced 100% import tariffs on patented drugs from foreign countries as of Oct 1, unless companies have manufacturing facilities or have begun construction in the US. The news sent pharmaceutical shares down in markets from Europe to Asia.
The European Union said its trade deal with the US shields the bloc’s drug exports from tariffs higher than 15%. Officials pointed to the joint statement released in July, under which Washington agreed to ensure the tariff rate on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and lumber does not exceed 15%.
Trump also announced a series of punishing tariffs on heavy trucks, kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities and upholstered furniture, also effective on Oct 1.
The US economy expanded by 3.8% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, the most in nearly two years, reflecting a decrease in imports and an increase in consumer spending, the final revision of official data showed.
Trump signed an executive order that would help clear the way for a coalition of investors including the software giant Oracle to run an American version of TikTok, separate from its Chinese owner ByteDance, so that it can keep operating in the United States.
Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee expressed caution about lowering interest rates as the US economy grapples with the forces of slower growth and a weaker labour market. Fed chairman Jerome Powell made similar comments, saying policymakers face a difficult path ahead.
Gold prices hit record high of $3,778.54 per ounce on Tuesday after Mr Powell raised concerns about the state of the US economy.
China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong in August fell 39.1% from July, data showed on Thursday. The world’s top gold consumer imported a net 26.75 tonnes in August, down from 43.92 tonnes in July.
Sales of new homes in the US rose by a much larger-than-expected 20.5% in August compared with July to the highest level since January 2022. Sales were also 15.4% higher than August 2024.
US business activity lost momentum in September as the preliminary S&P Global composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 53.6 from 54.6 in August.
The US trade deficit fell by 16.8% from July to $85.5 billion in August, the Census Bureau said. Goods exports declined by $2.3 billion to $176.1 billion, while imports fell $19.6 billion to $261.6 billion.
New orders for key US-made capital goods unexpectedly increased in August. Non-defence capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending, rose 0.6% month, after a gain of 0.8% in July.
The US plans to extend a $20-billion swap line to Argentina and is ready to buy the country’s foreign bonds, providing much-needed financial support to President Javier Milei as he tries to regain investor confidence and stem a run on the peso.
The People’s Bank of China has opened a digital yuan operations centre in Shanghai featuring platforms for cross-border payments, blockchain technology and digital assets, marking another step in the country’s push for global adoption of its currency.
The Chinese central bank also plans measures to support the development of yuan bonds in Hong Kong, said deputy governor Zou Lan. The bank maintained its loan prime rates for 1- and 5-year terms at 3% and 3.5% respectively.
Apple Inc asked European Union antitrust watchdogs to scrap regulations intended to protect digital consumers, arguing that they expose users to privacy risks and threaten to undermine innovation.
Electrical vehicles accounted for 62% of all new vehicle registrations in the EU in August, the European auto group ACEA said. BYD of China sold three times as many new cars in the EU last month as in August 2024, surpassing US rival Tesla for the second consecutive month.
Euro zone business activity grew at its fastest pace in 16 months in September with composite PMI, compiled by S&P Global, edging up to 51.2 from 51 in August. The reading marked the ninth consecutive month of growth.
S&P Global’s preliminary UK PMI slowed to 51 in September from a one-year high of 53.5 in August, as demand for British exports declined at the fastest pace since April.
Sweden’s central bank delivered its third interest-rate cut this year to 1.75%, the lowest in three years, to bolster a recovering economy.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2% from 2.9% in June, driven by accelerated production and exports ahead of US tariff enforcement.
Russia’s finance ministry proposed raising value-added tax (VAT) from 20% to 22% starting next year, as part of a new three-year plan aimed at covering surging defence and security spending.
Nvidia Corp will invest as much as $100 billion in OpenAI to support new data centres and other artificial intelligence infrastructure, underscoring booming demand for AI tools and the computing power needed to make them run.
Indonesia and the European Union concluded a free trade agreement on Tuesday after nine years of talks, with both aiming to boost exports and investment and to offset the impact of Trump’s tariffs.
China, the world’s largest polluter, set a target to cut economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 10% over the next decade, a strategy that’s seen as too modest to put the nation on a path to net zero.
Shares of Chery Automobile Co, China’s biggest car exporter, rose in their Hong Kong trading debut after raising HK$9.1 billion (US$1.2 billion) in an initial public offering to help power overseas expansion.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has advised Thailand to reinstate its public debt-to-GDP ceiling of 60%, which was temporarily raised to 70% to handle pandemic-related spending. The recommendation aims to rebuild “fiscal space”, allowing the country to better absorb future economic shocks.
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Thailand’s credit rating outlook to negative from stable, citing risks to public finances from prolonged political uncertainty and weakening growth prospects.
Thailand’s exports grew at the slowest pace in nearly a year in August due to the impact of US tariffs. Shipments rose by 5.8% year-on-year to $27.7 billion, while imports surged by 15.8% to $29.7 billion. For the first eight months of 2025, exports rose 13.3% to $223 billion, while imports grew by 11.3% to $225 billion.
A special team has been established to investigate money flows potentially linked to baht movements, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said after a meeting with the Thai Bankers’ Association on Monday.
The Bank of Thailand says there is no sign of abnormal baht speculation, with the pivotal factor being the dollar’s weakening. The central bank is ensuring the baht does not fluctuate too quickly and strongly.
Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said the Half-Half Plus co-payment programme will be launched in mid-October to provide short-term stimulus. A budget of 30-50 billion baht is required, he said.
Thailand’s car manufacturing dropped by 6.1% year-on-year to 112,366 units in August as exports fell by 17.3% to 71,179 units. From January to August, car exports decreased by 12.4% to 602,975 units.
Household debt has surged by 22% to a four-year high, with the average per household at 740,596 baht, according to a survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.
Thailand’s foreign tourist arrivals for the year to Sept 21 totalled 23.45 million, down 7.4% from the same period a year earlier, the Ministry of Tourism and Sports said.
SET-listed Bangchak Corporation says it will invest $970 million (35 billion baht) between 2026 and 2028 as part of a major corporate restructuring aimed at doubling earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation.
COMING UP: On Monday, the US announces monthly pending home sales, Japan updates industrial production and China reports manufacturing PMI. On Tuesday, Australia announces an interest rate decision, the UK releases updated GDP, Germany announces monthly inflation and the US releases consumer confidence update. On Wednesday, the euro zone releases inflation data, followed by unemployment on Thursday. On Friday, the US announces non-farm payrolls and unemployment.
Locally, the new government delivers its policy statement in Parliament on Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday, Fitch Ratings hosts a conference on global risks and the regional outlook. On Thursday, SCG hosts ESG Symposium 2025.
STOCKS TO WATCH: Krungsri Securities said the government’s Khon La Khrueng Plus co-payment scheme, expected to start in late October, will be a positive driver for stocks benefiting from higher consumer spending, among them CP Axtra (CPAXT), the northern-based retailer Thanapiriya (TNP), CPALL (through its holding in CPAXT) and Berli Jucker (BJC). In beverages & consumer goods, beneficiaries include are Osotspa (OSP), Ichitan (ICHI), and Neo Corporate (NEO) as their products are widely distributed through traditional trade channels.
InnovestX Securities also sees the policy benefiting retail stocks with recommendations including CPAXT, CPALL, BJC and TNP. For the consumer goods sectors, top picks are CBG, OSP, HTC, ICHI, HMPRO, AWC and BCPG.
TECHNICAL VIEW: InnovestX Securities sees support 1,250 points and resistance at 1,350. Kingsford Securities sees support at 1,260 and resistance at 1,300.
