Bitcoin’s trading is influenced by liquidity frameworks, with a potential slow-burn rally expected rather than a speculative surge.
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QCP Capital says the market has moved beyond simple rate watching and into a full liquidity regime, where central-bank balance sheets and cross-border capital flows drive risk more than the Fed’s next 25 basis points.
“Central bank buying, de-dollarization flows, and institutional portfolio hedging have become the dominant forces propelling gold higher, extending its relevance well beyond the traditional inflation-hedge framework,” QCP Capital wrote, noting that during last weekend’s volatility, the Bitcoin-gold correlation has climbed above 0.85, highlighting synchronized flows between the two asset classes.
Prediction markets are coalescing around a steady but shallow Fed easing cycle that favors gold and digital assets over high-beta risk.
On Kalshi, traders now assign a 76% chance of exactly three rate cuts in 2025, with a total easing of 75 bps, matching JP Morgan’s baseline for a “mid-cycle, non-recessionary” path. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman’s remarks this week, calling for two additional cuts by year-end, reinforced that trajectory.
Bitcoin is trading inside that same liquidity framework.
Kalshi traders see a 51% probability it breaks $130,000 this year, which would mark a new all-time high, 33% for $140,000, and just 21% for $150,000, with even odds of touching $150,000 by mid-2026.
The market is positioning for a slow-burn rally, not a speculative surge, as easing expectations filter gradually into real yields and dollar liquidity. Glassnode data shows a dense cluster of call positions at the $130,000 strike, indicating that options flows could amplify short-term moves but also anchor resistance near that level.
The macro and on-chain signals point in the same direction: this is no adrenaline-driven bull market, but a slow, liquidity-fed advance that may keep pushing assets higher even without an aggressive Fed pivot.
That is, if the market can survive another Truth Social post.
BTC: Bitcoin is trading above $110,500, down 2%, pressured by renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and worries about global risk, while analysts caution that breaching the $110,000 support could open the door to a drop toward $96,500-$100,000
ETH: Ethereum is changing hands around $3,900, down about 4%, as investors scale back exposure amid macro uncertainty and crypto rout concerns, while some remain optimistic that ETH may “catch up” to gold over time
Gold: Gold is trading near $4,141.81/oz as safe-haven demand rises amid U.S.-China flare‑ups and mounting expectations for U.S. rate cuts.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose Thursday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.95%, following Wall Street gains driven by strong bank earnings.
