On Sunday, the most advanced US aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, arrived in the Caribbean. “Operation Southern Spear” now sports a dozen Navy ships and about 12,000 sailors and Marines, per AP.
Also this weekend, the US military bombed the 21st small Caribbean boat, alleged without evidence to be smuggling drugs in the Caribbean. Three were murdered.
Look. President Trump’s polling numbers are under water. The latest Morning Consult poll show him 10 points under water: only 44% approve and 54% disapprove. This is the lowest point of his second term.
Data from the Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs research are even worse. In that survey, only 36% of respondents approve of Trump’s overall job performance where 62% disapprove. That’s 26 points under water.
In response, Trump announced Friday he would roll back tariffs on some food products, given that affordability was the keyword in November’s blue wave on the 5th.
Republicans are in revolt against Trump’s demand that the government’s Epstein Files remain hidden. The release of 20,000 pages of documents from the Epstein estate have not helped Trump’s attempts to keep the lid on. House Republicans are expected to help pass a bill on Tuesday that calls for the Department of Justice to release the files.
Before last week’s file drop, 77% of Americans wanted the files released (67% percent of Republicans) with victim names redacted. His approval rating on the issue is in the toilet: an October Reuters-Ipsos survey showed all Americans disapproved of Trump’s handling of the Epstein files by about 3-to-1. Independents disapproved 59%-10%. Only 44% of Republicans approved.
What diversion from an angry public and rebelling Congress does Trump have left?
The saber-rattling has been building up slowly since the summer. Recent actions, such as authorizing covert CIA actions against Venezuelan ruler Nicolás Maduro, are getting more aggressive:
Beyond the ongoing attacks, the administration has moved toward a more permanent U.S. military presence in the region with plans for an air base in Ecuador, robust temporary troop rotations in Panama, newly active use of an airport in El Salvador with which U.S. Southern Command has a long-standing cooperative agreement, and the reopening of a mothballed naval base in Puerto Rico.
I’ve thought for a long time — at least since Ukrainian President Zelensky was in DC and Trump asked him about postponing elections during the war — that Trump wants a war as an excuse to clamp down during elections. Never mind that emergency powers do not overrule the Constitutional prohibition on a third term or that Trump has no authority to postpone or interfere with elections.
Researchers have shown there is at least a temporary bump in approval with warlike actions:
In 1970, the political scientist John Mueller described a “rally round the flag effect” where presidents are able to reduce criticism of government policies by making dramatic decisions such as big diplomatic decisions or sudden military interventions.
The only thing that is perfectly clear is that the Epstein Files do not seem to be on the cusp of “going away” any time soon and Congress has abdicated its role in war-making in Trump’s Venezuelan war mongering.
One is a scandal that will not die; the other, a distraction with reported popularity benefits. Together they equal the core theme of “Wag the Dog.”
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