Crypto veteran Arthur Hayes has issued a sharp warning about Monad, saying the newly launched layer-1 blockchain could crash by as much as 99% and become yet another venture capital–driven project that fails to achieve real adoption.
In an appearance on Altcoin Daily, the former BitMEX CEO called Monad “another high-FDV, low-float VC coin,” arguing that its token structure alone puts retail investors at significant risk. FDV, or Fully Diluted Value, represents the total market value a project would have if all tokens were already in circulation.
Hayes explained that projects with a wide gap between FDV and circulating supply tend to follow a predictable pattern: sharp initial price spikes followed by steep declines once insider or VC tokens begin unlocking. “It’s going to be another bear chain,” he warned, adding that an early pump does not guarantee real long-term utility.
According to Hayes, most new layer-1 networks ultimately fade, with only a few likely to remain relevant in the long run. He pointed to Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Zcash (ZEC) as the small set of protocols he expects to survive future market cycles.
Monad, which raised $225 million last year from VC firm Paradigm, officially launched its layer-1 blockchain on Monday, alongside an airdrop of its MON token.
Hayes Remains Bullish on the Broader Crypto Market
Despite his warnings about specific projects, Arthur Hayes maintains a strongly bullish outlook for the crypto market as a whole—driven, he says, by an incoming wave of global monetary expansion. According to Hayes, governments, particularly the United States, are gearing up for another round of liquidity injections ahead of election cycles and slowing economic growth.
“We’re at the end of the beginning of this cycle, and the massive amounts of crazy bull-market money printing are still ahead of us,” he said.
Hayes also rejected the popular idea of a fixed four-year Bitcoin cycle. Instead, he argued that past bull runs were powered not by halvings but by surges in global credit, led by the U.S. and China. When liquidity tightens, Bitcoin is the first asset to react, which he described as the “last free-market smoke alarm” for the global financial system.
Privacy Coins Poised to Lead the Next Narrative
Looking to the future, Hayes predicted that privacy technologies will define the next major crypto narrative. He expects rising interest in zero-knowledge systems and privacy-focused coins as demand for digital confidentiality grows.
He also believes institutional adoption will largely consolidate around Ethereum, supported by the expansion of stablecoins and tokenized financial products.
Earlier this month, Hayes revealed that Zcash (ZEC) is now the second-largest holding in his family office, Maelstrom—ranking just behind Bitcoin.
