BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has predicted that crypto-style perpetual futures could displace traditional stock exchanges, with equity price discovery migrating to 24/7 perpetual markets on crypto platforms.
A bold forecast for traditional finance
Hayes made the comments as U.S. and Asian exchanges, including CBOE and SGX, prepare to launch their own perpetual products by the end of 2025. He described the trend as an “adapt or die” moment for legacy exchanges, warning that failure to adopt crypto’s perpetual model and socialized loss margin systems could result in diminished liquidity and relevance compared to crypto venues and decentralized platforms.
Hayes highlighted the impact of BitMEX’s perpetual swap, a futures-like product with no expiration date, which consolidated liquidity into a single contract tracking spot prices while enabling high leverage. He noted that perpetuals, coupled with socialized loss systems and insurance funds, allow retail traders to access deep liquidity with limited legal risk to initial margin deposits.
Early adopters and the path forward
Hayes cited Hyperliquid’s HIP-3, a permissionless protocol that enabled a firm called XYZ to launch a Nasdaq 100 equity perpetual, now recording significant daily volume. He predicted that equity perpetuals will emerge as a major product in 2026, with centralized and decentralized platforms competing to list them.
The co-founder also pointed to a changing U.S. regulatory landscape. Following years of enforcement actions after the FTX collapse and his legal proceedings with the CFTC, Hayes noted that regulatory attitudes shifted in 2025 under the Trump administration, creating a more favorable environment for crypto derivatives. He said this has encouraged global regulators to adopt similar policies, giving exchanges like SGX confidence to pursue perpetual listings.
Long-term outlook for crypto perpetuals
Hayes projected that by the late 2020s, the largest derivatives on U.S. benchmarks, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, could be perpetuals traded on crypto platforms rather than futures listed on CME and other incumbent exchanges. Traditional clearinghouses, he noted, face limits from under-capitalized guarantee funds, restrictive retail leverage rules, and legacy operating hours incompatible with 24/7 markets. Perpetual swaps, by contrast, allow traders to post smaller collateral while maintaining meaningful exposure, mitigating risks associated with large deposits at exchanges exposed to hacks and failures.
Recent activity and market commentary
On-chain data shows Hayes recently liquidated sizable positions in several altcoins following a sharp market decline, despite prior indications that he would hold his ETH positions. He also praised a privacy coin on X after it delivered triple-digit monthly gains, outperforming the broader altcoin market.
