Arthur Hayes has recently reopened a long position on Ethereum and indicates a cyclical target up to 20,000 dollars.
His thesis is based on technical signals — a possible “test” in the 3,000$ area and expected resistances near historical highs — and on a macro context potentially favorable to assets with programmed supply; it must be said that this is an extremely aggressive forecast (data to be verified). Source Fortune.
Context and source: why it is being discussed now
The debate has reignited after the recent statements made by Hayes in an interview with https://fortune.com/crypto/2025/05/18/arthur-hayes-on-bitcoins-route-to-200000-holding-gold-and-why-hated-ethereum-is-due-for-a-comeback/.
The former CEO of BitMEX confirmed that he has repurchased ETH and sees room for a significant rise, up to a cyclical target of 20,000 dollars in this cycle. In the past, as already noted by https://decrypt.co/331473/ethereum-hit-10k-tear-market-new-asshole-arthur-hayes, Hayes has not hidden his inclination for bold predictions on Ethereum.
According to the data collected by our team and compared with on-chain sources updated as of August 1, 2025, after the Merge (September 15, 2022), the share of ETH locked in staking has grown steadily and currently exceeds 20% of the circulating supply; this phenomenon, along with the burn mechanism introduced with EIP‑1559, alters the supply dynamics in the medium term.
Industry analysts also note that, after the Dencun upgrade (August 2023), key on‑chain metrics (TVL, active addresses, and volumes on rollups) show signs of increased usage of the L2 network, an element that needs to be monitored to assess the strength of demand.Fonte Glassnode Fonte Coin Metrics.
Hayes’ thesis: macro tightening, scarce assets, and rotation to ETH
According to Hayes, the combination of irregular monetary policies, increasing debt, and poor real credit expansion can drive demand towards digital assets with a programmed supply. In this context, Ethereum could benefit from:
* “Natural” yield of the ecosystem – thanks to staking and fee burn, which over time tend to reduce the net circulating supply.
* Network effects related to the growth of DeFi and NFT and the expansion of layer 2 solutions.
* Institutional interest on the rise – even with spot ETFs on ETH still under discussion in some markets, the interest in structured products could support the asset. (SEC on spot products)
Technical analysis: the levels that matter (focus on 3k and all-time highs)
The technical approach remains central in the analysis proposed by Hayes. Across multiple timeframes, the key levels observed include:
* Area $3,000: psychological and technical watershed. A “test” around 3k can verify the strength of buyers after phases of volatility.
* Zone of the historical highs of 2021: structural resistance around $4,800, corresponding to the peaks of 2021, where profit-taking often concentrates.
* Key averages: holding or recovery of the 200-day EMA and the 20-week EMA tends to signal a phase of mature trend in the crypto cycle.
An interesting aspect is that some price models based on algorithmic forecasts have indicated a possible target of $4,768 by September and long-term scenarios up to $19,375 by 2040; however, these values are influenced by very dynamic variables (volatility, adoption, upgrades, macroeconomic conditions) and should be read as probabilistic ranges, not as certainties (data to be verified). Source Decrypt.
Forecasts in comparison: what the models say
* Target ciclico 20.000$ (Hayes): a top-down view that intertwines macroeconomic dynamics, scarcity narrative, and technical indicators.
* Projection $4,768 (by September): short to medium-term estimate suggested by some algorithmic models.
* Scenario $19,375 (2040): long-term forecast anchored to adoption curves and historical cycles.
Having said that, these extreme targets should not be interpreted as linear trajectories: the market could explore these areas through sequences of rallies and corrections.
On-chain and fundamentals: what to really observe
Besides the price, there are some drivers related to the use of the network:
* Staking and burn: more ETH locked in staking and continuous fee burn can reduce the pressure on net supply.
* Layer 2 (rollup): after recent upgrades — like Dencun — the decrease in costs on L2 encourages activity and the adoption of new use cases. (Ethereum Blog)
* On-chain traffic and liquidity: volumes on DEX, TVL in DeFi, and active addresses help measure actual demand.
* Flows in institutional products: prolonged inflows or outflows in spot ETFs, ETPs, or funds can impact the price. (The Wall Street Journal – Crypto section)
Sentiment and momentum: a still balanced picture
The short-term readings indicate a mixed sentiment. A Fear & Greed Index around 50 — like that of Alternative.me (value updated as of August 22, 2025) — signals a balance between bull and bear pressures, typical of consolidation phases that precede a directional acceleration.
Independent voices and counter-arguments
Some independent analysts highlight factors that can hinder an exclusively bull narrative:
* Competition from other chains: differences in performance and user experience could shift the activity, influencing relative valuations.
* Regulation: possible clarifications or restrictions on DeFi and stablecoin may compress the potential of the ecosystem; currently, various measures are under discussion in multiple countries (Financial Times).
* Macro conditions: shocks related to rates, growth, or global liquidity can quickly reverse a favorable trend.
Operational implications and risk management
To frame ambitious targets like $20,000 without excesses, it is important to define a precise time horizon, monitor the main http:///analisi-tecnica-ethereum-livelli-chiave levels (3k and historical highs), observe http:///volatilita-mercati-crypto and http:///liquidita-crypto-mercati, and diversify in accordance with one’s risk profile. An interesting aspect is that discipline in sizing can make a difference in drawdowns.
Risks and variables to monitor
* Monetary policy and liquidity conditions at a global level.
* Network upgrade and adoption times of scalability solutions.
* Regulations on crypto markets and regulations on intermediaries, still under discussion in various jurisdictions (SEC).
* Flows to and from institutional products (spot ETF, ETP, funds), which can affect overall demand.
In summary
The call by Arthur Hayes brings Ethereum back to the center of the cycle: in a bull scenario, a test of the $3,000 area is plausible, a confrontation with historical resistances and new momentum if macro and on-chain drivers remain favorable. The http:///previsioni-ethereum-2025-2040 — from the level around $4,768 in the short term to the hypotheses of $19,375 in the long term — should be read as ranges of probability, not as absolute certainties.
Sources and methodology
Disclaimer: this content is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Crypto markets are characterized by high volatility and estimates can change rapidly.
