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Since the broader cryptocurrency market correction began, the price of Cardano (ADA) has steadily declined, reaching as low as $0.22. While prices are experiencing a steady downward trend, Cardano is starting to see a drop in multiple critical areas, such as its derivatives market, as Open Interest declines.
Cardano’s ongoing decline has intensified and is beginning to reflect on its derivatives market as its Open Interest (OI) undergoes a sharp decrease. Its open interest has collapsed following a sudden unwind of leveraged positions, as shown in a report from Joao Wedson, a market expert and founder of Alphractal.
The sharp drop implies that traders have been driven out or have closed positions due to increased volatility, flushing out speculative exposure. By removing extra leverage from the system, these resets frequently signal a move away from overheated situations.
According to the expert, ADA open interest fell from about $1.6 billion to $334 million, but a trend is subtly unfolding underneath. Data shows that major players are aggressively closing their ADA positions. However, the key insight here lies in the direction that the open interest is now concentrated.
Wedson highlighted that Binance, the leading crypto exchange, controlled over 80% of ADA’s open interest back in 2023, with the remaining 20% collectively controlled by 17 other exchanges. Meanwhile, in 2026, this structure has completely flipped.
As seen on the chart, Binance currently holds just 22% of Cardano’s open interest, while Gateio is leading the charge with about 31% dominance. Although it may seem less impulsive, the expert stated that the shift is more important than most people in the sector realize.
The same was observed with Solana when it rallied from the $20 level to $200 between late 2023 and 2024, and Binance’s open interest dominance grew by 10%, reaching 52%. However, Binance’s dominance has declined again since 2024, and Solana’s price momentum has clearly weakened.
Wedson noted that the pattern is consistent. When open interest becomes fragmented and Binance’s share drops, altcoins typically lose their upward strength, and this is exactly what is happening with Cardano. Binance is frequently the exchange that drives significant altcoin rallies, but only when competition is constrained and leverage is concentrated.
After a steep drop, Cardano’s price is sitting inside a long-term accumulation range. The structure is akin to the end of a corrective phase and preparation for a new cycle, and a break from the long-term downtrend supports a bullish continuation setup.
Once the breakout occurs, Wolf of Crypto predicts a move to $2 and $3, marking the mid-cycle target. Meanwhile, the full cycle target is set at $6 and $10 in a strong altcoin season scenario.
Currently, Cardano is still one of the best active chains in developer activity, focusing on governance, scaling, and real-world utility. Historically, after Bitcoin bottoms out, capital moves into high beta Layer 1s like Cardano, which could spur a bounce in ADA’s price.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
