Ethereum has entered a range typically linked to widespread selling, with its MVRV Z-Score dropping to -0.42. However, analysts remain divided on whether Ether is nearing a market bottom.
The MVRV Z-Score measures whether a crypto asset is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its market capitalization with its realized value, which represents the aggregate value of Ether at the prices it last changed hands.
The indicator is designed to highlight periods of market euphoria or capitulation, when market value diverges sharply from realized value.
CryptoQuant analyst and Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson said the reading “indicates that Ethereum is clearly undergoing a capitulation phase.”
That said, Wedson noted the current level “does not match the intensity” seen at major market bottoms during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. The lowest MVRV Z-Score on record was -0.76, reached in December 2018, he added.
Further downside for Ether still possible
Wedson cautioned that Ether could see additional losses before any sustained recovery takes shape.
“The market is clearly under pressure, but historically there is still room for further downside before a definitive structural bottom is established,” he said.
Ether has fallen about 30% over the past two weeks, hitting a bear market low of $1,825 on Friday before rebounding modestly to around $2,100 on Monday.
HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun told Cointelegraph that Ethereum’s MVRV Z-Score has historically been “a highly reliable indicator” for spotting major market turning points, particularly bottoming zones across multiple cycles.
“Based on on-chain activity, protocol development, and the long-term structure of the ecosystem, Ethereum’s fundamentals have not meaningfully deteriorated,” Sun said. “If anything, they continue to strengthen across several key areas.”
Still, Sun cautioned that it is too early to declare the bottom is in, as long as the key forces driving the current downturn remain in place.
“Given the potential liquidity constraints associated with the upcoming April tax season, the probability of further price downside remains a significant factor.”
One of the strongest “buy the fear” setups for Ether
Other market watchers are more bullish. MN Fund founder Michaël van de Poppe said he sees the current conditions as “a tremendous opportunity” for Ether.
“The main reason is the massive gap to ETH’s ‘fair value,’” he said, pointing to the MVRV ratio.
According to van de Poppe, Ether is now as undervalued as it was during several major market stress events, including the April 2025 crash, the June 2022 bottom following the Terra/Luna collapse, the March 2020 Covid sell-off, and the December 2018 bear market low.
“In all of those cases, this provided a tremendous buying opportunity for this particular asset.”
Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at crypto trading platform Bitrue, told Cointelegraph that negative MVRV zones “have repeatedly preceded explosive recoveries in past market cycles.”
“With Ethereum’s network fundamentals remaining strong, this looks like a compelling long-term accumulation opportunity once weaker hands are fully shaken out,” he said.
“Brutal capitulation now, but historically one of the best ‘buy fear’ windows for ETH.”
