Binance derivatives data points to rising open interest volatility without excessive leverage, suggesting early positioning in a transitional phase.
XRP’s current market structure resembles conditions last seen in February 2022, when short-term hodlers took up positions at levels below longer-term holders’ cost bases.
According to a Glassnode analytics comparison chart showing realized price data segmented by coin age, investors who bought XRP between the one-week and one-month window are currently accumulating tokens at prices below the realized cost basis of the six-month-to-twelve-month cohort.
This configuration is similar to about four years ago, when shorter-term buyers absorbed supply from older holders during a transitional phase in the market.
Month-old XRP holders are buying old coin supply
Between the end of 2021 and the first two months of 2022, during a period of distribution and consolidation that led to a bearish phase, XRP surged by 47% to a high of $0.9. 2026 began at a similar bearish underlink, and small price gains that could lead to a similar price charge come February.
Short-term realized price bands have dipped below those of the six-to-twelve-month cohort, while the aggregated realized price has flattened. XRP’s spot price has moved within a relatively tight range between $2.6 and $1.9 during the past six months.
The strongest concentration of liquidity and trading activity is between $2.02 and $2.01. However, its support lies slightly lower, around $ 1.97 to $ 1.99. If there is a chance that resistance thins, XRP bulls would face the first barrier at $2.05-$2.06. Should momentum pick up, a move above this range would help the token set course towards $2.08 and higher.
The price action is undoubtedly muted, but a significant repositioning is taking place between new holders and the buyers giving up hope on an XRP bull run. According to CryptoQuant, wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP increased their combined balances from approximately 11.14 billion tokens to around 11.17 billion tokens.
Although modest in percentage terms, the increase signals continued engagement from large holders during a period when price momentum is ice-cold. Meanwhile, addresses holding between 1 and 10 million XRP raised their balances from about 3.54 to 3.59 billion coins, equivalent to nearly $100 million in added exposure.
The inflows began around January 14, while the old cohort briefly reduced exposure the following day as XRP’s price corrected towards the red zone.
Long-term holders collectively held about 223,201,195 XRP last Friday, but by Sunday, that figure had risen to approximately 234.8 million tokens, a 5.2% uptick in holdings over just two days. Racking up tokens during a market pullback could indicate market participants are willing to absorb short-term volatility, hoping the asset would slide down any further.
XRP open interest signals the highest volatility since November
According to CryptoQuant analyst Arabchain, XRP’s total open interest reached around $566.48 million, exceeding the 30-day moving average of approximately $528.84 million. The positive gap shows that new positions are entering the market, although not at an aggressive pace.
The muted spike in open interest is in line with Ripple’s token’s relatively stable spot price. However, the standard deviation of open interest over the past 30 days has gone up to about $65.7 million, its highest level since last November.
Historically, increases in open interest volatility have preceded periods of top price movements or profound dips, as leverage and positioning begin to diverge. Still, Arabchain mentioned that the 30-day rolling Z-score, which measures how far current open interest deviates from its mean adjusted for volatility, is moderate at around 0.57.
A level near or above extreme thresholds spells overheated conditions, so the analyst believes that leverage has not yet reached excessive levels.
Meanwhile, US XRP spot ETF trading will continue today after a brief pause for Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday. The investment fund closed the previous business week with $1.12 million in inflows, taking the total net assets to $1.5 billion.
Don’t just read crypto news. Understand it. Subscribe to our newsletter. It’s free.
