Bitcoin’s relief rally toward $72,000 is showing signs of cooling, but analysts say the price could still “continue rising” in the near term.
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin needs to reclaim the short-term holder realized price at $80,000 as support to confirm a trend reversal.
- Analysts also say that spot trading volume and overall market activity must pick up to sustain any meaningful breakout in BTC’s price.
Bitcoin must reclaim $80,000 as support
Bitcoin’s 8% rally over the past three days to $72,000 has pushed it back above key technical levels, including the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $68,000 and the 50-day EMA at $70,000—both now acting as support.
“BTC is currently in a buy wall zone, with the $67,700–$70,000 range serving as a key support area,” analyst CW8900 said in a Thursday post on X.
The bullish outlook now depends on breaking through a major sell wall between $72,000 and $73,000, where investors have accumulated roughly 386,100 BTC over the past three months.
“There is a sell wall up to $73K,” CW8900 added.
“It must break through this sell wall to continue rising to $75K.”
Glassnode’s risk indicator highlights another key resistance zone higher up, between the true market mean at $78,000 and the short-term holder cost basis near $80,000.
“This is a particularly important threshold,” Glassnode said in its latest Week Onchain newsletter, adding:
“Until price reclaims this level, the mid to long-term bias remains tilted to the downside, as any rally into this zone is likely to encounter meaningful distribution pressure from recent buyers seeking to exit at or near breakeven.”
As previously noted, bulls need a decisive breakout above the $76,000–$80,000 range to confirm a shift in trend.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s market activity has cooled, with both onchain transfer volume and spot trading volumes declining.
The seven-day moving average of onchain transfer volume has fallen by about 50.5% to 660,000 BTC as of Thursday, down from 1.36 million BTC less than a month ago.
Spot activity also remains subdued, with the 30-day relative volume across exchanges staying below 1.0—well beneath the cyclical highs seen during the recent bull market.
This divergence highlights a lack of speculative momentum needed to sustain further price gains.
While there has been a slight uptick in spot volume, it does not yet indicate a meaningful return of market participation.
“Until spot demand strengthens, rallies are likely to remain fragile and lack strong follow-through,” Glassnode said, adding:
“A clear expansion in volume would signal stronger conviction and a healthier foundation for continuation.”
As reported, both spot and derivatives markets are beginning to recover, with Bitcoin’s spot net volume delta and taker cumulative volume delta turning back into positive territory.
