While bullish on altcoin ETFs, the analysts caution that Bitcoin ETFs still dominate, which could limit market share growth for altcoins.
Two prominent industry analysts have turned very bullish on altcoin ETFs, predicting that eight different applications have 90-95% odds of SEC approval.
The assets in question include Litecoin, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, HBAR, and Avalanche. They’re also bullish on a basket ETF but believe that SUI only has 60% odds.
Since the Bitcoin ETFs first hit the scene, crypto has irrevocably changed. This first offering was a long and difficult battle, but enthusiasts hoped that Bitcoin would open the floodgates.
New SEC management has inspired a torrent of altcoin ETF applications, and two Bloomberg analysts believe that many of them are practically certain to succeed:
Their top altcoin ETF picks include all the classic contenders like Solana and XRP. The analysts in question, James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, have been following this race for months.
They previously picked Litecoin as the top candidate, but it’s now a three-way race between these assets.
Five more altcoins are only slightly less likely to win approval. They gave Sui 60% odds due to its uncertain status as a commodity, and didn’t rank Tron. Commentators inquired about several other filings, but they only considered proposals with active Form 19b-4 filings.
So, why are they so optimistic? After all, the SEC has been postponing altcoin ETF applications on all fronts. The important thing to remember is that the Commission is meaningfully engaging with these proposals.
A hostile SEC under Gary Gensler tried to ignore filings for as long as possible, but today’s Commission acknowledges them promptly.
Even if it’s unable to move as quickly as the industry might like, the SEC is still showing encouraging signs. Seyffart theorized that final approval could happen as soon as July or as late as October. Either way, he thinks it’ll happen in 2025.
Luckily, the community has been understanding of these setbacks. For example, popular belief in a successful XRP ETF spiked to 98% earlier this month despite an SEC delay.
It seems now that industry professionals are taking a similarly rosy view of altcoin ETFs. Hopefully, the first approvals will start going through in the near future.
Still, these bullish predictions might not immediately translate into lucrative investment opportunities. As of June 2025, Bitcoin ETFs take up 90% of the sector. Even if all eight of these altcoin ETFs win approval, BTC might continue dominating market share.
