XRP has pulled back nearly 50% from its multi-year peak of $3.66 and is now trading below $2, a technical structure that veteran analyst Peter Brandt says could carry “bearish implications” for the token’s price.
Key takeaways:
- XRP showed bearish momentum below the $2 level, with technical indicators suggesting a potential move toward $1.
- However, a successful hold and rebound from the $1.78 support zone could negate the bearish scenario.
Is XRP’s top already in?
XRP’s technical structure suggests that its failure to hold above the $2 support level leaves the altcoin vulnerable to a deeper correction.
In a post on X on Wednesday, veteran trader Peter Brandt noted that a “potential double-top” formation could push XRP lower over the coming weeks or months. The pattern remains active on the weekly chart and would be confirmed if XRP closes the week below the $2 neckline.
However, a decisive reclaim of the neckline could turn the move into a bear trap, effectively invalidating the bearish outlook.
“Sure, it may fail, and I will deal with this if it does,” Brandt said, adding:
“But for now this has bearish implications.”
If XRP stays below the neckline, the pair could first slide toward $1.65, aligning with the 100-week simple moving average (SMA). A deeper decline could then bring the 200-week SMA near $1.07 into focus as XRP’s final major support.
Analyst XForceGlobal linked the bearish turn to a wave-3 corrective move within a broader “five-wave impulse following the triangle breakout,” as illustrated in the chart below.
Based on this Elliott Wave outlook, XRP may fall into the $1.20–$1.35 range in what the analyst described as a final pullback—one that could “determine everything needed for the next expansion phase.”
As previously reported, the probability of the XRP/USDT pair sliding back to its Oct. 10 low near $1.25 rose after XRP was rejected at the 20-day moving average around $2.
XRP’s 2018 fractal points to a potential $1 target
XRP’s current price structure closely resembles the pattern that preceded its 2018 bear-market breakdown. As shown in the chart below, the $2 zone is acting similarly to the final support level XRP lost before suffering a roughly 70% decline seven years ago.
With XRP struggling to regain the $2 level and sellers firmly in control, the price could face an additional decline of up to 70% toward $0.60 before eventually rebounding and stabilizing near $1—mirroring the correction that followed a similar technical setup in 2018.
XRP is also under renewed downside pressure as weakening derivatives activity and onchain positioning raise the risk of the XRP/USD pair sliding toward $1.
Not all hope is lost for XRP bulls
Despite the bearish backdrop, XRP remains above a critical support zone that bulls must defend to avoid deeper losses. Glassnode’s UTXO realized price distribution (URPD)—which tracks the average prices at which XRP holders acquired their tokens—indicates that the next major support lies around $1.78, a level where roughly 1.85 billion XRP were previously purchased.
“XRP needs to hold this support line,” said Mikybull Crypto, referring to the $1.70-$1.80 demand zone in the monthly time frame.
“Otherwise, it’ll be carnage.”
