Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), could fall as much as 40% to around $1,200 in the coming weeks, based on a fractal pattern highlighted by analyst Leshka.eth.
Key takeaways:
- Ethereum appears to be repeating a pattern that previously led to declines of 45% and 48%.
- Macro headwinds and large-holder distribution are weighing on the token’s near-term outlook.
Ethereum setup signals potential bull trap
Ethereum’s projected downside toward $1,200 is based on a Supertrend indicator on the daily chart, where two previous bullish reversals failed and were followed by sharp declines.
The Supertrend is a straightforward trend-following indicator plotted on the price chart, shifting color to reflect market direction — green during uptrends and red during downtrends.
ETH showed similar bullish flips in October 2025 and January 2026, but both moves ultimately lost momentum and reversed.
In both instances, ETH climbed above the Supertrend’s upper band, which then acted as support. Once that support broke, the rally unraveled, leading to declines of 45% and 48%, respectively.
“Now the same setup is forming at $1,990,” Leshka.eth said, adding:
“If that level breaks, the next target is the $1,200 zone.”
That aligns with the measured downside target of Ethereum’s prevailing bear flag pattern, as shown below.
The bearish setup is emerging as Ethereum gives back its March gains amid a deteriorating macro environment.
Risk appetite has weakened alongside escalating geopolitical tensions involving the US, Israel and Iran, while recession concerns have intensified. At the same time, bond markets have sharply repriced expectations, with traders no longer anticipating Federal Reserve rate cuts in the near term.
ETH has dropped more than 17% from its monthly high set over two weeks ago, while US spot Ether ETFs have recorded roughly $300 million in net outflows خلال the same period.
Demand for Ethereum has also weakened, falling to its lowest level in 16 months.
ETH holder accumulation remains weak
Ethereum’s recent rebound has yet to spark broad accumulation among major wallet groups, according to Glassnode data.
The number of mega-whale wallets holding more than 10,000 ETH has plateaued after peaking in late 2025, while the 30-day change has only recently edged back toward neutral following months of decline.
In other words, the largest holders are not actively accumulating.
A similar trend is visible among smaller wallet groups. Ethereum wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH remain below their late-2025 peaks, with the 30-day change hovering around flat to slightly negative territory.
Shark addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 ETH also remain well below last year’s highs, indicating that mid-sized holders have yet to return as strong buyers.
Taken together, the data points to ongoing distribution and weak conviction across key ETH holder groups, reinforcing the risk of a deeper decline if the $1,990 level breaks.
That said, one of the few bullish signals for Ethereum is the growing amount of Ether being staked, alongside exchange supply dropping to near decade lows, as previously reported by Cointelegraph.
