Chainlink trades at $23.64, testing $23.40 support, with bullish signals targeting $25.81 if momentum holds against broader market risks.
Altcoins are braving turbulent market conditions as Q3 nears its end, leaving investors concerned about what Q4 might bring.
September is typically a month of heightened caution, but Analyst Michael Van De Poppe believes the tide may shift this year, with certain tokens poised to shine.
Historically, September has been the weakest month for Bitcoin and altcoins. Data shows that Bitcoin averaged a 5% decline during the month, making it the only consistent losing period for the crypto leader. Such drops often drag altcoins lower as well.
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However, speaking to BeInCrypto, analyst Michael Van De Poppe suggested this cycle could break tradition. He argued that altcoins have favorable conditions to resist Bitcoin’s seasonal weakness.
“It’s correct that this cycle has been completely different than the previous cycles and that’s why I think that this cycle will continue to be different than the previous ones. In recent years, the markets have seen a correction in August and a bullish outcome for September. I think that we’ll be at the end of the correction relatively soon, which would likely signal that altcoins are going to outperform Bitcoin, and I think that we’ll see a bullish Q4,” said Michael.
One factor driving optimism is the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The U.S. central bank is expected to cut interest rates for the first time this year. Currently at 4.25% – 4.50%, the forecast is for the FOMC to slash the rates by 25 bps, bringing them to 4.00% – 4.25%.
The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 88% probability of this outcome, fueling investor confidence. A rate cut would ease financial conditions, improve liquidity, and support higher-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. For altcoins, this could spark inflows as investors seek growth opportunities.
“The business cycle and the monetary expansion haven’t been in the best climate for risk-on assets, like altcoins, to surge. However, as Ethereum is the first mover, it’s expected to see strength from the entire crypto market when a rate cut and monetary expansion is going to take place. The current stage of the cycle is comparable to Q4 2019 or Q1 2020,” Michael stated.
Adding to the cautious optimism, BTC and altcoins, in September, will see token unlocks worth nearly $10 billion. Typically, large unlocks weigh heavily on prices by flooding the market with supply. This dynamic often suppresses gains and leads to sell-offs.
This time, however, bullish cues across the broader market may cushion the impact. With improving sentiment and potential macroeconomic support, altcoins could absorb the supply influx.
“Almost every time, the unlocks are being rolled over through new OTC contracts, so the actual impact of the unlock is near zero. However, it’s likely that coins that don’t have any unlocks are likely to outperform coins that do have unlocks. That’s something to take in mind when you’re building a strategy for yourself,” Michael told BeInCrypto.
Talking to BeInCrypto, Michael highlighted that in the coming days, the altcoins to look forward to will mostly be from the DeFi and DePIN sectors, as well as the ETH Ecosystem.
“Those are the three specific verticals for me that are likely going to do well, and we’ve seen the first signs of such a season with Chainlink starting to fire up, but also the massive expansion on the stablecoin side,” Michael noted.
Chainlink’s price is up 5% in the past 24 hours, trading at $23.64. The altcoin is attempting to flip $23.40 into a solid support floor, which would provide stability and potentially encourage investors to push LINK toward higher levels.
The Parabolic SAR, currently appearing above the candlesticks, is shifting downward, suggesting a likely move below them. Such a change signals an active uptrend for Chainlink. This momentum could fuel a rally, enabling LINK to target $25.81 resistance and strengthen its recovery path.
If bearish conditions persist in the broader market, LINK may struggle to sustain momentum. A failure to hold $23.40 could result in a decline, potentially dragging the price to $22.06 or lower, thereby invalidating the short-term bullish outlook for the altcoin.
