Gold surged to a record high on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump made comments about inflation on his social media platform. Bitcoin, however, moved in the opposite direction—highlighting what some see as its “split personality.”
For the past two and a half years, gold, Bitcoin, and the Nasdaq have largely moved in tandem, all climbing higher, noted IG market analyst Tony Sycamore.
“However, there has been a breakdown in the correlation between gold and Bitcoin in recent weeks, which isn’t uncommon for brief periods and comes due to Bitcoin’s split personality.”
“Sometimes Bitcoin is treated like a safe-haven store of value, while other times it trades more like a risk asset,” Sycamore explained.
On Monday, gold prices hit a record $3,485 per ounce after a 1% jump, according to GoldPrice. The surge followed a Sunday post by Trump on Truth Social, where he claimed that prices in the U.S. are “WAY DOWN” and that there is “virtually no inflation.”
Bitcoin, meanwhile, dropped to its lowest point since early July in a sharp divergence from gold’s rally. On Monday morning, it slid to a two-month low of $107,290 on Coinbase, according to TradingView—marking its steepest correction since the mid-August all-time high, with losses now exceeding 13%.
“Right now, Bitcoin and gold aren’t really moving in sync,” said Vince Yang, co-founder of Ethereum layer-2 platform zkLink, in an interview.
“This year, their correlation has been weak—and at times even negative. Gold remains the traditional safe-haven, while Bitcoin trades more closely with liquidity and market risk,” Yang explained. “In that sense, they act as offsets to each other rather than moving together.”
Still, IG’s Sycamore believes the connection could reassert itself over time, as it has in the past.
“Looking at the bigger picture, if Trump pushes the economy to run hot and the Fed cuts rates while inflation lingers, I expect Bitcoin’s correlation with gold to return, sending both higher,” he said.
“The real question is simply at what level Bitcoin manages to find its footing.”
Bitcoin may just be trailing gold
Historical trends suggest Bitcoin often rallies within 150 days of gold reaching fresh record highs.
When gold broke above $2,000 in 2020 during the pandemic, Bitcoin followed with a surge to its own all-time high the next year.
Joe Consorti, head of growth at Theya, noted earlier this year that Bitcoin typically tracks gold’s directional moves—but with a lag of around 100 to 150 days.
