Bitcoin closed its weekly candle at $76,931 on Sunday, slipping below the 100-week moving average for the first time since October 2023. Analysts are now assessing whether this signals the early stages of a bear market and what it could mean for Bitcoin’s long-term recovery.
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin has closed a weekly candle below its 100-week simple moving average, a signal historically associated with extended multi-month drawdowns.
- Previous bearish breaks below this weekly trendline have persisted for roughly 182 to 532 days.
- Meanwhile, strong spot trading volume in the $85,000–$95,000 range could establish this zone as a significant resistance area.
Bitcoin drops below a key long-term weekly trend
Bitcoin closed a weekly candle beneath its 100-week simple moving average (SMA), currently around $87,500, signaling a breakdown of an important macro support level.
Crypto advocate Brett pointed out that, excluding the 2020 COVID-19 flash crash, Bitcoin has historically spent prolonged periods trading below the 100-week SMA. During the 2014–2015 cycle, BTC stayed under this level for 357 days, with prices consolidating between $200 and $600 after the 2013 bull-market peak.
From 2018 to 2019, Bitcoin traded below the 100-week SMA for 182 days, a phase that aligned with the bear market bottom between $3,000 and $6,000.
In 2022, following the FTX collapse, BTC remained under the 100-week SMA for 532 days, consolidating in the $16,000–$25,000 range.
Rather than triggering swift recoveries, each of these periods evolved into extended accumulation phases, indicating that time — not an immediate bounce — may once again be required before the next bullish cycle begins.
USDT dominance and $85,000 resistance signal rising bear market risk
Crypto analyst Sherlock noted that a potential bear market could take shape after USDT dominance recorded a weekly close above 7.2%. In previous market cycles, weekly closes above 6.7% confirmed bearish conditions, making this breakout — the first in over two and a half years — especially noteworthy.
The analyst identified $85,000 as a critical resistance level. Over $120 billion in spot volume was traded between $85,000 and $95,000 in Q4 2025, leaving a large number of Bitcoin holders currently at a loss. With BTC trading near $78,000, any move back toward $85,000 could encounter consistent selling pressure as traders look to exit at breakeven. This risk is reinforced by the realized price of one- to three-month holders, which stands around $91,500.
BTC fractal structure echoes the 2022 downturn
Bitcoin’s current weekly price structure is displaying strong similarities to the 2022 dip. During that period, BTC set lower highs, broke below the 100-week SMA, and was unable to maintain a recovery before entering a deeper corrective phase.
A comparable pattern appears to be unfolding in 2026. If this fractal plays out, Bitcoin could retest the $40,000–$45,000 zone, a well-established area of demand. While fractals are not predictive on their own, the broader setup indicates that downside risk remains elevated unless Bitcoin can convincingly reclaim the 100-week SMA.
