Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen warns that Bitcoin’s price downtrend may last longer than many investors expect.
“Bitcoin is likely to keep underperforming the stock market,” Cowen said in a video on Thursday, noting that hopes for a “massive rotation” from precious metals like gold and silver into cryptocurrencies could be premature.
Gold and silver prices have recently hit record highs, reaching $5,608.33 and $121.64, respectively, according to Trading Economics.
Citi recently forecasted that silver could rise to $150 within three months, fueled by strong Chinese demand and a U.S. dollar at four-year lows.
Despite this, Cowen stressed that a significant shift from metals to Bitcoin is “probably not going to happen” in the near term.
Many in the crypto community see gold and silver hitting record highs as a potential signal that Bitcoin could eventually follow suit.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $82,859, down 7.78% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap.
Broader market sentiment remains subdued. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which gauges overall crypto sentiment, registered an “extreme fear” score of 16, indicating significant caution among investors.
Optimism from some analysts
Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal told that the market could be approaching a turning point. “We’re right on the cusp of where we’d traditionally expect to see re-risking back into Bitcoin,” he said.
Hundal noted that “Bitcoin bottoms have historically lagged gold’s relative strength by about 14 months,” suggesting that a rotation into Bitcoin could occur around February or March.
“If history repeats—and that’s a big if—the gold-Bitcoin dynamic points to a potential BTC bottom forming over the next 40 days,” he added, emphasizing that gold usually leads during periods of macroeconomic stress, with Bitcoin following once risk appetite returns.
“If that model holds, the market should appear less fragile by the end of the quarter,” Hundal concluded.
Meanwhile, Bitwise Europe head of research Andre Dragosch highlighted Bitcoin’s relative undervaluation compared to gold. In a Jan. 19 post on X, he said, “Bitcoin is trading at a steep discount to Gold on a relative basis. These asymmetric setups are very rare,” adding that “if flows turn, Q1 2026 could mark an inflection point.”
