Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (MSTR), trading under the name Strategy, has a strong likelihood of joining the S&P 500—provided Bitcoin doesn’t fall more than 10% before the end of the second quarter, according to one analyst.
“There’s about a 91% chance of MSTR making it into the S&P 500 in Q2,” financial analyst Jeff Walton said in a video released Tuesday.
MSTR must show cumulative positive earnings over the last four quarters
Walton explained that for MicroStrategy to qualify, Bitcoin must stay above $95,240 through June 30. If it falls below that level, Strategy—which holds the largest Bitcoin reserve among public companies at 592,345 BTC—won’t generate enough earnings in Q2 to surpass the combined total of the previous three quarters.
Walton noted that to qualify for inclusion in the S&P 500, a company must report positive cumulative earnings over the past four quarters. However, Strategy has recorded net losses in each of the last three.
The S&P 500 is a benchmark index tracking the stock performance of the 500 largest publicly traded companies in the U.S.
As of January 1, Strategy began using accounting rule ASU 2023-08, which requires Bitcoin holdings to be marked to fair market value each reporting period, with any resulting gains or losses reflected in net income.
Walton’s prediction is based on Bitcoin trading at $106,044 at the time of his video. He calculated the likelihood of a 10% drop within six days using historical Bitcoin data since September 17, 2014. With the video released on Tuesday, six days remain until the end of the second quarter next Monday.
“Going back to September 17, 2014, over any 6-day period, the price of Bitcoin has dropped more than 10% 343 times; of those other 6-day periods, it has been 3,585 where it hasn’t dropped below 10%,” he explained.
“So 8.7% of those 6-day periods have dropped more than 10%, the other 91% of those periods have not dropped 10%,” he added.
MSTR’s chances of qualifying improve as the quarter nears its end
As June draws to a close, Walton said the odds of Bitcoin avoiding a 10% drop continue to rise. Over the next five days, there’s a 92.4% chance it won’t fall that much. That probability increases to 93.4% over four days, 94.5% over three, 95.8% over two, and 97.6% on the final day.
Still, Bitcoin dipped below $100,000 on Sunday—the first time since early May—amid escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel. At the time of publication, Bitcoin had recovered to $106,200.
If everything aligns, Strategy would become the second crypto-related company to join the S&P 500 this year. In May, crypto exchange Coinbase was added to the index, a move that industry leaders described as a major milestone in mainstream recognition.
“It cements the legitimacy of an entire asset class,” said Meryem Habibi, chief revenue officer of Bitpace.
Back in December 2024, Nasdaq announced that Strategy would be added to the Nasdaq-100 Index, which includes the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq.
