A Bitcoin analyst has suggested that traders expecting the cryptocurrency to hit its cycle-high price by year-end may be misinterpreting statistical principles.
In recent weeks, multiple analysts have shared forecasts for Bitcoin’s trajectory.
“Anyone who thinks Bitcoin has to peak in Q4 of this year does not understand statistics or probability,” PlanC wrote in a Friday post on X.
“From a statistical perspective, assuming Bitcoin must peak in Q4 is like flipping a coin and seeing tails three times in a row, then betting everything that the next flip will also be tails,” PlanC said, noting that three past halving cycles aren’t enough to draw meaningful conclusions.
No “fundamental reason” for a Q4 Bitcoin peak
The analyst further argued that the halving cycle has lost its relevance, especially amid industry shifts such as the rise of Bitcoin treasury holdings and heavy inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
“There is zero fundamental reason — beyond psychological expectations and a self-fulfilling prophecy — for Bitcoin to peak in Q4 2025,” he explained. Still, Q4 has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter since 2013, averaging returns of 85.42%, according to CoinGlass.
Some analysts caution that if the halving cycle still plays a role, Bitcoin could begin a downtrend as early as October.
Traders remain split on whether the cryptocurrency will peak by year’s end.
Industry debates whether bull market extends into 2026
On Aug. 17, Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg said there’s a “greater than 50% chance Bitcoin climbs to the $140K–$150K range this year before another bear market sets in next year.”
Others, however, believe the rally could last longer. In July, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said, “I bet 2026 is an up year.”
Meanwhile, several analysts have set bold targets of $250,000 before the end of 2025. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes projected that level in April, followed by a similar forecast from Unchained Market Research Director Joe Burnett in May.
