Bitcoin’s market cycles are not dictated by halving events, despite the common belief, according to analyst James Check, who argues that other forces shape bull and bear markets.
“I believe Bitcoin has gone through three distinct cycles, none of which are tied to halvings,” Check said on Wednesday, referencing the scheduled reward reductions that occur roughly every four years.
Instead, he pointed to “adoption trends and market structure” as the true anchors of Bitcoin’s cycles, noting the 2017 peak and the 2022 bottom as key transition points.
Check outlined three phases: the “adoption cycle” (2011–2018), fueled by early retail involvement; the “adolescence cycle” (2018–2022), marked by speculative booms and leveraged busts; and the current “maturity cycle” (2022 onward), defined by greater institutional participation and stability.
“After the 2022 bear market, the dynamics shifted,” he said. “Those expecting history to repeat may overlook the signal, focusing instead on the noise of past patterns.”
Halving cycle theory remains intact
Check’s view challenges the widely held belief that Bitcoin’s market cycles follow a four-year rhythm tied to halving events, which reduce block rewards and create a supply shock that fuels demand.
According to this theory, bull market peaks occur the year after each halving — as seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021 — with many expecting the pattern to repeat in 2025.
However, Check argued that Bitcoin stands apart as “the only other endgame asset alongside gold,” suggesting that the current cycle could play out over a longer horizon.
Is the four-year cycle coming to an end?
Several recent forecasts suggest the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle may be breaking down, with the current bull market potentially stretching into next year on the back of growing institutional involvement.
Earlier this month, Bitwise chief investment officer Matthew Hougan remarked that the cycle “isn’t officially over until we see positive returns in 2026. But I think we will, so let’s say this: I think the four-year cycle is over.”
Meanwhile, entrepreneur “TechDev” told his 546,000 followers on X that “the business cycle’s dynamics are all that’s been needed to understand Bitcoin’s,” highlighting how past peaks and troughs align with broader market patterns.
The analysis indicates that transitions between bear and bull phases are shaped by liquidity dynamics, not the traditional four-year halving cycle — with the key distinction this time being a longer-lasting bullish phase.
Glassnode says the current cycle is nearing its end
On Aug. 20, Glassnode analysts noted that Bitcoin continued to follow its traditional cycle patterns. This week, they reaffirmed that increased profit-taking and sustained selling pressure “indicate the market has entered the late stage of the cycle.”
Position trader Bob Loukas, however, offered a more pragmatic perspective on market cycles:
“I hear often, ‘There are no more Bitcoin cycles’. Reality is, we’re always in cycles. We just can’t help ourselves. We pump until it bursts, because we just want more. Then we start again. Only difference is how much shrapnel you avoid and how quickly you reset.”
