President Donald Trump has justified his historically high tariffs on foreign goods by promising that they would lead to a boom in domestic manufacturing jobs in the US.
However, in year-end reviews of the US job market, three economists make the case that Trump’s record on creating manufacturing jobs has been a massive bust.
Mike Konczal, senior director of policy and research at the Economic Security Project and a former member of President Joe Biden’s National Economic Council, argued in his personal newsletter on Friday that the Trump administration’s efforts to reorganize the US labor market away from service sector jobs have completely failed.
In particular, he found that jobs in manufacturing, mining, and logging have all declined throughout the first year of Trump’s second term, while jobs in construction have remained mostly flat after years of steady growth during former President Joe Biden’s administration.
What’s more, the administration’s stated goal of opening up more jobs for native-born US workers by conducting mass deportations of immigrant workers has also flopped, as native-born unemployment has been higher in 2025 than in either of the last two years.
“The bleak irony is that even after sacrificing real prosperity to chase this 4chan-level political economy, they still won’t achieve their goal,” Konczal concluded. “The jobs aren’t coming back, the wages aren’t rising, and family formation won’t be rescued by trying to rewind the labor market to a world that never existed in the first place.”
Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman concurred with Konczal’s assessment of the US labor market in an analysis published Monday in which he described Trump’s record on jobs as “an abject failure.”
Krugman argued that Trump’s war on clean energy projects is almost certainly making the situation even worse by killing blue-collar manufacturing and construction jobs in the wind and solar industries.
“Trump has scrapped Biden’s green energy policies in favor of tariffs and fossil fuels,” Krugman noted. “But it isn’t working. Instead, employment in ‘manly’ sectors has fallen since Trump took office.”
Additionally, said Krugman, Trump’s plan to use tariffs to bring back manufacturing jobs to the US was always destined to fail given the realities of how modern economies work.
“In the modern world nations mostly don’t sell each other completed consumer goods,” he explained. “Instead, the majority of trade involves sales of goods that are used to produce other goods… What this means in practice is that tariffs, which raise the prices of those capital goods and inputs, raise the production costs of US manufacturers, in many cases making them less competitive with foreign producers.”
Ball State University economist Michael J. Hicks, in a column published Monday by the Indianapolis Star, also pointed the finger at Trump’s tariffs when explaining his failure to revive US manufacturing.
Hicks argued that the damage the president’s policies have done to manufacturing won’t be undone any time soon.
“The US is in the early days of a manufacturing contraction that will run through most of 2026, even if the tariffs are lifted today,” he warned. “We should call it the deindustrialization of America. All of this flies in the face of the nonsensical claims of a manufacturing renaissance or onshoring that would bring factory jobs back to the US.”
