Two themes will dominate the midterm: affordability and turnout. The affordability issue is real and can only be resolved at the presidential level. God willing, the strong economy translates into placated voters.
Turnout, on the other hand, is a whole-of-Party endeavor from the grassroots to the highest echelons of the Party. Democrats intend to dispirit us, depressing turnout in the process. Then we have our own evil naysayers, ostensibly loyal party conservatives who have effectively joined the other side.
In 2022, Republican voter turnout was characterized as:
In 2024, Republican voter turnout was characterized as:
Yet 2022 and 2024 may turn out to be historical aberrations. Why?
In 2022 and 2024, the Republican Party had the wind at its back as voters expressed revulsion toward Biden-era politics that focused on issues at odds with many Americans’ beliefs, sharing a generalized conviction that America was going down the tubes in an orchestrated manner. This explains how Donald Trump, with some of the worst negatives any presidential candidate has ever faced, wound up dominating the election cycle and winning against all odds. It was a total victory over the left-wing Democrat party, and to this day, the Democrats have not learned the lessons they should have from their loss, merrily repeating the same memes and messaging that cost them the last election.
However, we shouldn’t rely on Democrats handing us a victory again. Biden is gone, Trump owns the economy, and, like it or not, he’s also subject to whatever narrative dominates the news cycle. We have a window of opportunity to shift gears and messaging that must launch no later than April of this year. There is a phenomenon in politics, some have described as “peaking early,” that has undone otherwise winning campaigns by campaigning too early.
Keeping in mind that this is not a presidential campaign but 435 individual House seats and 35 Senate seats campaigns, no single strategy works in all cases. Moreover, most seats are usually not very competitive, but there is a small subset that is actually up for grabs:
Therefore, we don’t need to focus on all 470 races, but only on about 50. The most obvious strategy is to figure out what makes a candidate a likely loser, and then avoid such candidates.
In 2024, there was Kari Lake, whose persistent focus on election fraud and inflammatory rhetoric made her a polarizing nominee and contributed to her defeat in Arizona’s Senate race. Reporters and analysts pointed to her refusal to move past her 2022 loss and to bad messaging as central liabilities.
Mark Robinson ran for governor of North Carolina after a string of anti-LGBTQ and antisemitic remarks that drew national attention and defined him as an extreme, easily attacked candidate.
John Whalen III, a Republican House candidate in Delaware, ran despite a campaign marked by controversial statements.
Other GOP nominees who relied on issues from past elections or repeatedly made incendiary public comments also underperformed in competitive contests, prompting party operatives and analysts to conclude that candidate quality — not just the national environment — cost Republicans winnable races in 2024.
The big question is whether we will learn from these mistakes. The National Republican Senatorial Committee and the National Republican Senatorial Committee have often done a terrible job of helping out local races. Political infighting, especially pressure from the RINOS, has resulted in money poorly spent, weak candidates, and, eventually, frustrated primary voters who pick extremists to make a point. The party must do better.
God Bless America!
