The biggest concern in my head is when to take profits this cycle. Historically, the Dec-Jan timeframe has been best to get out of your bags before the bear erases profits… but I feel more leaned toward using past data relative to the halving instead of exact dates from the halving.
I am looking at BTC dominance currently, comparing it to the 2020 cycle and how it played out. I feel like BTC on its USD pair is almost identical to how it looked back in 2020. In this timeframe, we found a bottom in March and rallied into May, and then consolidated into mid-July. We then rallied and consolidated end of July into August before the historical September dump, followed by the MCT rally.
So to block out all the noise, what does this mean? I feel we will play out the same pattern that BTC had in 2020 on its USD pair, and by looking at BTC dominance during the 2020 March-Sept timeframe, I feel altseason will play out just as it had then, NOW!
By looking at BTC.D during this timeframe, September marked the pivot where instead of dominance dropping, it reversed until topping out in December, before giving us that crazy altseason. I feel since September historically has marked a pivot in BTC.D and a negative month for BTCUSD, we will see a rally in BTC.D just like in 2020, with a top late Q4 of 2025, followed by that altseason rally.
So when do we sell? In this case, I’m looking at the first week of September and marking out the bottom on BTC.D from the first week in Sept to then. This gives us 252 days, which is my main and first target. That would put us from the first week in Sept now into April of 2026, when I believe altcoins will peak. There is another scenario where we can measure out from the first week of Sept to the all-time low of 2020, but I feel it would be irrelevant because the cycle would then have to go on for months longer, which I doubt happening.
So ultimately, I am looking to sell my bags this Dec-January timeframe if I see alts going parabolic and my targets being hit like 5x-10x with BTC.D dropping. But if I don’t see this happening, this will be my exit strategy — targeting the April 2026 altcoin top.
